BUSINESS
IMF to India: Keep policy flexible until US tariff uncertainty clears
The IMF's growth and policy projections for India are entirely contingent on one factor: how soon the 50 percent US tariffs are rolled back
BUSINESS
What to look for beneath Friday’s Q2 GDP headline
India’s Q2 GDP data will likely show strong real growth, but the real signal lies in the nominal slowdown that’s straining revenues, profits, and fiscal arithmetic
POLICY-2
The new Labour Codes do not create flexibility — They just make it legal
India’s new labour codes formalize a flexibility that already existed, promising broader social protection in return
BUSINESS
Flash PMIs paint picture of resilient but fragile global economy at year-end
The latest global economic snapshots from PMI surveys place India's RBI at the opposite end of the policy spectrum from the US Fed, with softening price pressures and fading animal spirits at home building a case for rate cuts
BUSINESS
India's Trade Shift: More China, less Russia, uncertain America
As global trade upheaval reshapes partnerships, India's goods export and import patterns from April-October 2025 reveal tactical manoeuvres with the US, a pragmatic thaw with China, and a strategic pivot away from Russia—but the real question is whether these shifts will endure
MARKETS
Decoding Economics: Which days really move global markets?
New research from the US Fed pinpoints the specific US and political events that trigger global risk aversion, offering Indian investors a powerful tool to anticipate volatility rather than just react to it
BUSINESS
Data Story: India's October trade deficit balloons, but gold rush, base effects tell a deceptive story
India's merchandise exports contracted 11.82 percent in October 2025, pushing the trade deficit to a staggering $41.68 billion, but beneath the alarming headline numbers lie temporary distortions from festive gold imports and statistical base effects that mask a more nuanced reality
BUSINESS
Data Story: PLFS data show urban unemployment increased during the festive season
The festive shopping boom brought cheer to retailers but not to job seekers as urban unemployment rose even as sales surged
BUSINESS
Chart of the Day: Why global sentiment stays strong despite record economic uncertainty
As policy turbulence pushes the World Uncertainty Index to historic highs in 2025, business and consumer confidence defies expectations—revealing a paradox that challenges conventional wisdom about economic resilience
BUSINESS
Bihar's landslide verdict cements bullish case for India's political economy
Bihar's decisive verdict proves that targeted welfare and infrastructure spending build durable political coalitions while generating the consumption demand and policy stability that investors prize
BUSINESS
No country for working women
A data-driven analysis revealing why India's marginally improving female unemployment rate masks a deeper crisis of scarce, precarious, and often unpaid work for women
BUSINESS
India’s Power Tightrope: Growth, vulnerabilities, and opportunity in IEA World Energy Outlook 2025
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2025 sees India as the world’s biggest driver of energy demand growth — yet import dependence, mineral shortages and climate stress could threaten its momentum
BUSINESS
October CPI hits rock-bottom 0.25%: GST cuts shine, but food deflation rings alarm
October’s CPI just hit 0.25%—the lowest since the 2011-12 series began. A triumph of policy? A statistical mirage? A rate cut in December? Or a warning bell for rural India?
BUSINESS
IMF sees India’s fiscal deficit stalling after FY26
According to the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor, India’s fiscal consolidation is set to lose momentum after FY26, signalling deep-rooted structural limits in its public finances
POLITICS
Bihar's Job Promises: A confession of crisis
The extravagant job pledges dominating Bihar's elections reveal a deeper truth about the state's crippling underemployment and economic distress
BUSINESS
Tepid tax revenue growth raises stakes for consumption-led recovery, post festive season
With only 2.8% tax revenue growth in H1, the government’s fiscal roadmap hinges on a strong consumption rebound fuelled by GST cuts and lower rates—any shortfall risks spending cuts and a tighter FY27 budget
BUSINESS
Data Story: India’s Golden ATM
A massive Rs 1 lakh crore expansion in gold loans in the last six months is unlocking the vast, dormant wealth of India's unproductive family gold hoards
BUSINESS
Lopsided IIP Growth: Five sectors drive gains, half of manufacturing languishes
September's industrial production data reveals a troubling paradox: while consumer durables and automobiles surge on festive demand, the broader manufacturing base is shrinking, with staples contracting and robust growth concentrated in just five of 23 sectors
BUSINESS
Aatmanirbharta with Chinese characteristics: How China's five-year Plan counters America
China's 15th Five-Year Plan is a blueprint for economic fortification, pivoting towards technological self-reliance and domestic consumption to counter US rivalry
BUSINESS
Data Story: September 2025 core sector data signal caution, but policy tailwinds could stabilise outlook
India's core industries contracted sharply in September, highlighting a significant slowdown, though newly implemented GST cuts and anticipated RBI rate moves are expected to stimulate a recovery
BUSINESS
Decoding India's Trade Deficit -- Strong domestic demand, not tariffs, is the real story
Recent trade data reveals that while Trump's tariffs impacted specific US-bound exports, India's overall trade story is dominated by resilient export diversification and a domestic demand-driven import surge, particularly in gold
BUSINESS
Data Story: Trump’s Tariffs and Indian Jobs: What the latest PLFS data reveal
The sharp 50% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Indian exports have raised alarms about job losses, but September’s unemployment data reveal that the impact, while real, remains concentrated and nuanced rather than a broad spike
MARKETS
IMF flags fragile foundations beneath market optimism
The IMF’s latest reports reveal a global economy holding firm on the surface, but hiding deeper financial vulnerabilities that investors shouldn't ignore
BUSINESS
The message from this year’s Economics Nobel: Ideas drive development
The pioneering work of Nobel laureates Mokyr, Aghion, and Howitt reveals that economic growth is fundamentally powered by the institutions that fuel innovation and the market processes of creative destruction
