BUSINESS
With neutral policy tone & liquidity management, rate cut unlikely any time soon
The comfort in the policy tone was no surprise given the relatively tighter system liquidity (despite recent easing), and steadily easing core inflation despite stronger growth.
BUSINESS
Interim Budget to be non-event, don't expect major move on tax mobilisation, rationalisation
The upcoming budget, being interim in nature, would likely be a non-event as far as big-bag announcements, new tax or spending pitches are concerned.
BUSINESS
RBI MPC: Comfortable tone amidst a comfortable backdrop
The RBI’s mention of the “risk of overtightening” amid a fluid global backdrop strengthens our view that domestic policy reversal will be a function of global dynamics.
BUSINESS
GDP data points towards weak growth patches ahead
Even as recovery in domestic economic activity is yet to be broad-based, protracted global drags in the form of still-elevated prices, shrinking corporate profitability, demand-curbing monetary policies and diminishing global growth prospects weigh on output
BUSINESS
A global recession is necessary to pull back inflation. How should you invest then?
The new global regime needs a new investing approach, now that a multi-decade period of stable growth and inflation is over. The conventional playbook of “buy the dip” or “time rallies” that worked during the sustained bull markets of the Great Moderation needs a re-watch ahead
BUSINESS
Monetary Policy | MPC frontloads to play catch-up
The sharp inter-meeting repo hike of 40 bps reflects increased policy urgency with heightened inflation uncertainties and the need to do policy catch up with the Fed and other EM Asian peers. June may see another frontloaded hike of 25 bps or more, FY23 could see overall rates go up by 125 bps
BUSINESS
Q1FY22 GDP growth propped by base effect but still has silver linings: Madhavi Arora of Emkay
Clearly, factors such as better adapted firms and policy response, stable financial conditions and robust global growth spillovers have created growth buffers back home.
BUSINESS
MPC’s October meet may see more active debate on definition, pace, mode of accommodation
The minutes of the August meeting was of particular interest because of Professor Varma's 'dissent', the second in one year. “We expect VRRRs to be gradually increased further, either on tenor or amounts, to normalise liquidity skewness,” says Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Institutional Equities desk.
BUSINESS
'RBI may have to stretch GSAP/OMOs beyond Rs 4.5 lakh crore to manage impending demand-supply mismatch'
Clearly the RBI seems anchored on improving growth prospects and maintaining stable financial conditions even with elevated inflation risks.
BUSINESS
'Unlikely to see any action of liquidity normalization in upcoming RBI policy'
We could see RBI reiterating its support for the bond market and also indicate that they do not necessarily target any level or segment of the yield curve, said Madhavi Arora of Emkay
BUSINESS
Global Stagflation vs Reflation debate: What the bond market knows that we don't?
We do see some pressure on global yields emanating from growth and policy normalization and see gradual EM spillover and higher risk premia as fears of delta variant subside in the medium term.
