BUSINESS
Interim Budget seeks to decouple budget-making from long-term policy goals
FM Sitharaman walks the talk on fiscal discipline. The finance minister has put the accent on the hour hand of the clock by looking ahead a quarter century hence (2047) and free-up policymaking mindspace from annual financial calendars
BUDGET
FM Sitharaman’s Interim Budget sets tone for Viksit Bharat roadmap
Capital expenditure outlay has increased by 11.1 per cent to Rs 11.1 lakh crore. Fiscal deficit for FY 25 has been pegged at 5.1 per cent of GDP; GYAN (garib, yuva, annadata, narishakti) identified as key pillars to drive development.
BUSINESS
UPI is more than ease of payments. It is adding to GDP too
Ease and convenience of spending has lowered the economy-wide cost of transaction. The resultant saving is triggering incremental spending. UPI is also enabling easier credit-driven household spending
BUSINESS
Telecom Bill 2023: Ground laid out for India telecom’s space take-off
Once voted into law, the Telecom Bill 2023 will replace three laws—the Indian Telegraph Act of 1885, the Indian Wireless Telegraphy Act, 1933, and the Telegraph Wires (Unlawful Possession) Act, 1950. It will also amend the TRAI Act, 1997, without diluting the regulator’s powers.
BUSINESS
IIP shows flurry in factories; Nov, Dec numbers crucial to fit a surer trend
If growth holds robustly for the next two months, then it would be reasonable to assume that the broader economy, powered by consumer demand, is accelerating onto a faster track
BUSINESS
Q2 GDP: Manufacturing, construction power up economy, but villages need to shine
Greater factory output, in normal circumstances, should indicate greater demand for goods at an aggregate level. Production and consumption of intermediates—cement and steel—appear to corroborate this. This would broadly imply greater construction activity, which is showing up in the national income numbers.
BUSINESS
God’s own country inching towards a fiscal precipice. Blaming the Centre alone won’t help
Kerala’s finances require a long hard look. By all accounts, this doesn’t make for a healthy public finance management glide path
BUSINESS
Surge in India’s taxpayer base mirrors upward mobility
The number of people declaring Rs 10 lakh-plus annual income has grown nearly fourfold in the past 10 years. While inflation could explain part of this rise in income levels, and a part by more toning of the tax administration nudging people towards more income disclosures, a substantial part of this 93.7 million taxpayer base is a reasonable proxy of growing formalisation, rising incomes, and better affordability that have turned yesterday’s luxuries into today’s necessities
TRENDS
GHI gets it wrong. Shorter Indian children doesn't mean it is because they sleep hungry. It’s more complex than that
There is a wide body of literature by distinguished Nobel laureates that suggest correlating height with hunger will be fallacious. There are two fundamental flaws in GHI’s methodology. First, is the conflation of the aspect of physical height with hunger. Second, is the collection and the methodology of data itself. The highest level of statistical and academic rigour should be non-negotiable while framing such indices. Hunger is too serious a matter
BUSINESS
India’s growth a global standout with China slowing and US recession still likely
World Bank projections reinforce India’s position as a global growth engine. The world will lean heavily on India to pull the global economy in an uncertain period
BUSINESS
GDP: Services sector stands out as a growth engine, but an erratic monsoon could play party pooper
When companies, individuals, and households take loans, chances are, they are feeling more confident about their business and income prospects, confident enough to commit themselves to long-term loans to buy houses and cars and invest in businesses. The evidence in the national income data indicates a trend towards this.
BUSINESS
Credit ratings agencies’ credibility record is peppered with questions on methodology and bias
What is the information and data matrix that Moody’s has gathered and processed to prompt them to flag rising political risks in India? Data and information are the very edifices on which the architecture of any ratings action and annotation should rest. There is now a wide body of credible academic literature that have spared no punches on CRAs’ bias against emerging economies
INDIA
I-Day speech: PM bets on middle class beyond metros to power next growth phase
India’s economic growth ambitions are predicated upon the emergent spending power of the neo-middle class, whose ranks, the Prime Minister said, has surged as development lifts millions out of poverty.
BUSINESS
Rupee takes cautious steps towards internationalisation as case for de-dollarisation strengthens
India is seeking to ride on bilateral trade pacts to internationalise the rupee and reduce dependency on the dollar. Besides tariff levels and the removal of measures and provisions that act as trade barriers, India has now thrown currency into this mix as a matter of strategic interest.
BUSINESS
India’s flag fluttering tall on the high seas of world trade
What has stood out is India’s ability to drive trade pacts as growth multipliers, thereby giving Indian artisans, goods makers and service providers easier barrier-free access to overseas markets.
ECONOMY
At 6.1%, India’s Q4 GDP faster than the biggest, but there are a few worry lines
Both consumption spending and government spending will have to quickly accelerate onto a faster lane and continue to expand consistently over the medium term to maintain India’s growth momentum
BUSINESS
India top destination for China Plus, but conditions apply
The armies of youth joining the queue of hopefuls should be skilled and upskilled to meet the labour demand. And, the policy and regulatory architecture has to remain consistent to enable long-term investment
POLITICS
In the battle of poll promises in Karnataka, fiscal prudence should not be the casualty
The new government will have to factor in a Rs 16,000-18,000 crore payout on the Seventh Pay Commission. Interest payments as a percentage of revenue receipts have risen from 10.6 per cent in 2019- 20 to 15.1 per cent in budget estimates for 2023-24, and off-budget borrowing is a concern too. Higher committed expenditure will leave little fiscal room for developmental spending
BUSINESS
India’s $2 trillion export goal hinges on states and districts coming along
The road for the plucky drive for exports is through the districts and states that are economically laggard, but has the potential to join the trade route through enhanced infrastructure that will considerably cut down the factory-to-port travel time
BUSINESS
Ajay Banga could pivot changes in World Bank’s development paradigm with the India model
The new grammar of political reforms and governance is an evolving rule book that will have implications on how economic progress gets translated into social equalities, an area that Banga may like to spend some time on in the World Bank
BUSINESS
IPEF: India should trade cautiously on the clean economy pillar
Decarbonisation conditions warrant careful examination and scrutiny from India’s negotiators. India faces the challenge of balancing its economic growth ambitions while still being on the correct side of the climate change fence
BUSINESS
Air India’s Boeing, Airbus orders are a big deal for the West. Because it’s about jobs, stupid
From the days of protesting jobs being taken out from the US to offshore centres in India to now cheering an order by an Indian company that creates jobs in America and Europe, the axis of economic might seems to have decisively turned
BUSINESS
Budget 2023: FM pins hopes on textbook play of capex multiplier
There are, however, headwinds that need factoring in. These include: a rebound in the Chinese economy, persistently shaky global financial conditions, uncertainties and shifting geo-political developments, disorder in global trade, and knock-on effects on inflation due to rising crude oil prices
BUSINESS
Economic Survey: Time to canter amid visible signs of private sector 'crowding in'
The survey explicitly states the government’s intent to walk the talk on frontloading investment in infrastructure that will go on to trigger cycles of private sector investment
