BUSINESS
OPINION | There’s a window of opportunity now for a repo rate cut
Inflation’s low but urban consumption is tepid, investment cycle is yet to pick up and geopolitical uncertainty is a dampener. Fiscal support’s come through GST rate adjustments. Monetary policy needs to complement it
BUSINESS
Navigating economic turbulence with 3Cs
Donald Trump may have pressed the pause button on tariffs for some countries, but uncertainty still looms large. When seen in this context, RBI’s monetary policy committee has been wise to undergird its approach in a way that boosts confidence, remains cautious about global headwinds and also provides a cushion for the domestic economy through lower policy rates
BUSINESS
Budget’s approach will impinge on the fiscal-monetary tango
There was a de facto monetary easing between April and January, with term premium sliding to a decade low. However, at present interest rate have hardened and credit offtake has slowed down. In this scenario, if budget proposals lead to lower net market borrowings, it will open up space for more monetary easing
BUSINESS
GDP growth and inflation will trend downwards in FY25
Agricultural growth and higher government consumption spending means private consumption will support growth this fiscal. However, weak urban demand and elevated food inflation will limit its overall impact, leading to a slowdown in the pace of economic momentum. RBI may cut interest rates only towards end of the financial year
BUSINESS
A pivot in monetary policy in October is likely
RBI’s shift to monetary easing could begin on October 9 through signalling on liquidity followed by an interest rate cut in December. Both domestic factors and easing by major central banks indicate RBI will follow suit through gradual moves, but geopolitics remains the unknown variable
BUSINESS
Budget nudges growth in the immediate term, opens pathways for new reforms
Budget has set the ball rolling on new policy pitches that take cognisance of new areas that may require support to ensure resilient, sustainable and more equitable growth
BUSINESS
Union Budget 2024: Rural India needs policy support to become resilient
Budget 2024-25 needs to address rural distress in the short term and provide a solid statement on long-term economic policy that strengthens the sector
BUSINESS
GDP Expansion: Investments will remain a key driver of growth
While industrial capex will get a push from government policies and new-age opportunities, infrastructure spending will continue to drive a large part of the growth in capex this fiscal
BUSINESS
MPC decision: The dialectic of inflation and growth
Mint Road has preferred to assess the lag effect of past rate hikes than pull back growth momentum
