US returns to nuclear testing after 33 years: How America’s arsenal compares with Russia and China | Explained

“I hated to do it, but had no choice! Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within five years. Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.”

With this Truth Social post, United States President Donald Trump has officially ended a three-decade moratorium on nuclear weapons testing, reigniting fears of a new global arms race.

The United States last conducted a nuclear test in 1992, before then-President George H. W. Bush declared a moratorium at the end of the Cold War. Trump’s latest order reverses that long-standing restraint, bringing the world’s most powerful nuclear states back into a dangerous competition for supremacy.

The beginning of the nuclear age

The nuclear era began in July 1945, when the United States tested a 20-kilotonne atomic bomb in New Mexico. Only a month later, two atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ending World War II but marking the start of a far more perilous age.

Four years later, the Soviet Union carried out its first test, codenamed First Lightning, shattering America’s nuclear monopoly. In the decades that followed, Britain, France, and China joined the nuclear club. Britain conducted 45 tests, France 210, and China 45.

The push to control this escalation came with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1996, which banned all nuclear explosions for military or civilian purposes. Yet not all major powers ratified it, and since its adoption, ten tests have still taken place.

India and Pakistan each conducted two tests in 1998, while North Korea carried out six between 2006 and 2017.

A nuclear resurgence: Russia and China move first

Before Trump’s announcement, both Russia and China had already taken steps to upgrade and display their nuclear capabilities.

Just this week, Russia announced the successful test of the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drone. The weapon is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and triggering radioactive tsunamis along enemy coastlines. President Vladimir Putin also recently oversaw the test of the Burevestnik cruise missile, which he claimed had “unlimited range.”

The announcement marked the first confirmation that Poseidon’s nuclear propulsion system had been fully activated.

Russia’s nuclear arsenal includes several other advanced systems such as the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, Kinzhal hypersonic missile, and the Skyfall nuclear-powered cruise missile.

Moscow revoked its ratification of the CTBT in 2023, opening the door for renewed testing.

Counting the warheads: The world’s nuclear superpowers

Trump’s directive has sparked a renewed global debate: just how many nuclear warheads do the world’s top powers actually possess?

According to the Arms Control Association, nine countries currently hold nuclear weapons, with a combined total of about 12,400 warheads as of January 2025. Nearly 90 percent belong to the United States and Russia.

Russia leads with 5,580 nuclear warheads, including 1,200 that are retired but not dismantled. Around 4,380 remain in its stockpile, and 1,549 are strategically deployed.

The United States has 5,225 warheads, of which 1,477 are retired and 3,748 remain active.

China trails far behind with 600 warheads, all of which are operational.

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) offers similar estimates, noting that Russia holds about 4,309 active warheads and 1,150 retired ones, while the United States has 3,700 active and 1,477 retired. China, according to FAS, is rapidly expanding and currently possesses 600.

China’s expanding arsenal

China, a close ally of Russia, has undertaken one of the fastest nuclear expansions in modern history. The Pentagon projects that Beijing could exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030.

The Federation of American Scientists observes that China views its land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as the most reliable and survivable part of its nuclear force.

At this year’s Victory Day Parade, Beijing showcased several advanced systems, including the DF-16 ICBM, believed to have nuclear capabilities, and the DF-5C, designed to carry a multi-megaton warhead.

China’s sea-based nuclear systems include the JL-3 (Julang-3) submarine-launched ballistic missile, while its air force is equipped with the JL-1 or JingLei-1, meaning “sudden thunder.”

America’s nuclear triad

The United States maintains what is known as a nuclear triad — land-based missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and nuclear-capable bombers.

On land, the US relies on the LGM-30G Minuteman III ICBM, with a range of over 6,000 miles and speeds of up to 15,000 mph. The system has remained on constant alert since 1959.

At sea, the Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) form the backbone of America’s deterrence strategy. Each of the 14 submarines can carry up to 20 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, each with multiple independently targeted warheads. Their stealth capabilities make detection nearly impossible, ensuring second-strike potential in case of attack.

In the air, the US deploys the B-52 Stratofortress and the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber. Both can deliver nuclear and conventional weapons with global reach and precision.

A new arms race on the horizon

Trump’s order to resume nuclear testing has unsettled global observers who see it as a potential return to Cold War-style brinkmanship. Experts warn that the decision could lead to reciprocal actions by Russia and China, effectively triggering a new arms race.

The environmental risks are also severe. Even underground tests can release radioactive materials into the air or leak into groundwater.

As The Atlantic observed, “Resuming nuclear testing looks weak and petulant, not strong and confident. No American president should ever let the Kremlin get under his skin, especially not where nuclear weapons are concerned.”

The world now faces a chilling prospect: the breakdown of decades of nuclear restraint and the revival of an era many thought had ended for good.