Trump’s Russia tilt alarms NATO’s eastern flank

Trump’s Russia tilt alarms NATO’s eastern flank

Five months ago, Poland's opposition right-wing MPs were cheering Donald Trump's win with red hats and shouts of joy. Now, however, Trump's embrace of Vladimir Putin and increasing estrangement from the NATO allies is scaring the people of Poland and other countries in Eastern Europe, the Financial Times reported.

From jubilation to mistrust in Poland

Poland's Law and Justice party (PiS), which once viewed Trump as a fellow nationalist friend, is now dealing with the consequences of his watered-down approach to Russia. For PiS, whose anti-Russian stance is highly personal—particularly for leader Jarosław Kaczyński, whose twin brother perished in a 2010 plane crash in Russia—the change is fuelling abandonment fears. With a presidential election looming on May 18, Trump's turn is rattling domestic politics.

A region torn apart by Trump's diplomacy

Hungary's Viktor Orbán and Slovakia's Robert Fico have embraced Trump's rapprochement with Moscow, underpinning their own pro-Russian positions. Romanian George Simion and Czechia's Andrej Babiš, however, are balancing acts—publicly standing with Trump's MAGA politics and recommitting to NATO. Trump's seeming preference for bilateral agreements over multilateral NATO backing is revealing fault lines in the region.

Memories of Yalta resurface

Trump's increasingly warm relationship with Putin has reminded people of ghostly Yalta Conference echoes when Western powers ceded Eastern Europe to the Soviets. Romanian counsellor Cristian Diaconescu called the time a going back to the "gates of hell," remembering Cold War hardship and oppression. The ghost of "Yalta 2.0" is now a political rallying cry.

Security alliances continue in anxiety

In spite of strategic unease, Eastern Europe is still tied to the U.S. by strong economic and military alliances. Poland just inked a $2 billion contract for Patriot missiles, and Romania has pledged over $15 billion in U.S. energy ventures. But political uncertainty is leading nations such as France to provide alternatives, particularly in nuclear power.

Candidates in a transatlantic tug-of-war

During election periods, politicians are readjusting their agendas. Romania's Simion has toned down previous pro-Putin language, while Polish politicians from PiS and the Civic Platform are campaigning on tighter Ukrainian refugee policies to appease public anger. Far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen has ridden the anti-Ukraine wave, further polarizing political rhetoric.

Changing perceptions of Ukrainian refugees

Poland's early welcome of Ukrainian refugees has turned chilly, with most voters now seeing them as economic rivals. Mentzen has attracted criticism for invoking wartime grievances from World War II, while other candidates suggest eliminating welfare benefits unless the refugees contribute to taxes. The shift is part of a wider regional war weariness and its social cost.

Attached to Washington, cautious of Moscow

Even as Trump reshapes America's international stance, few in Central and Eastern Europe are willing to release their U.S. umbilical cord. Leaders identify the U.S. as their main security protector—even when irritated by Trump's unpredictability. As Romanian editor Dan Tapalaga warned, "With the US and Russia moving closer, where will we be when all is said and done? Nobody has the answer now."