Litmus test for Trump’s trade gambit? Why Modi-Xi-Putin bonhomie at SCO may unsettle US

File Photo - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping arrive for a family photo during the BRICS summit in Kazan on October 23, 2024. (Photo by MAXIM SHIPENKOV / POOL / AFP)

Amid the intensifying global power shifts, the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit in Tianjin is drawing unusual attention. The forum, which brings together India, China, Russia and other Eurasian states, comes at a time when the world is grappling with overlapping crises – Donald Trump’s trade war, China’s growing assertiveness, and Russia’s sharpening standoff with the West amid its ongoing war with Ukraine. For India, which finds itself balancing between strategic rivalry with China and partnership with Russia, the summit offers both opportunities and dilemmas.

While Beijing is keen to leverage the SCO as a platform to entrench its regional dominance, New Delhi must carefully weigh how best to safeguard its own interests amid an increasingly volatile mix of geopolitics and trade wars. The challenge is further compounded for India, which is currently grappling with punitive US tariffs as high as 50 per cent.

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For Washington, this summit will be hard to ignore. Trump’s new trade barriers were pitched as a way to “make America manufacture again.” But the unintended effect is becoming clearer with every passing week as it pushed Beijing and New Delhi -- two uneasy neighbours with lingering border disputes -- into reluctant but pragmatic convergence. The SCO summit is set to be a stage where this convergence becomes visible.

Since returning to the White House, Trump has doubled down on protectionism. His tariffs have rattled supply chains and forced governments around the world to rethink trade strategies. While India faces 50 per cent – the highest amongst all countries along with Brazil – China has been threatened with tariffs of up to 200 per cent by Trump if it curbs exports of rare-earth magnets.

The irony is that instead of isolating China, Trump’s tariffs are nudging India and China to at least coordinate on issues of trade and global governance. As Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center put it on X, “Trump’s policies are an accelerant of, not the catalyst for, India-China détente… More recently, it’s about hedging against Trump & US-India uncertainties.”

This year’s summit in Tianjin will be the largest in the organisation’s history, with over 20 leaders expected. China, which has branded the SCO an “important force in building a new type of international relations,” is using it to project solidarity across the Global South.

At a time when Western leaders have shunned Putin over the Ukraine war, the image of Xi, Modi, and Putin sharing the stage in Tianjin will be a powerful one. As Reuters noted ahead of the summit, “Xi will want to use the summit as an opportunity to showcase what a post-American-led international order begins to look like.” For India, the optics matter as much as the outcomes, signalling that it will not be boxed into a corner by Washington’s tariffs or sanctions.

Beyond the SCO itself, the Tianjin summit will reinforce India’s overlapping platforms with China and Russia -- the RIC (Russia-India-China trilateral) and BRICS. Both groupings are gaining fresh momentum. BRICS, now expanded with Gulf and African states, is advancing its push for trade in local currencies. RIC, once considered dormant, is expected to quietly revive as Moscow tries to bridge gaps between Beijing and New Delhi.

For New Delhi, the Tianjin summit is about hedging. On one side, India benefits from supply chains shifting out of China due to Trump’s tariffs. On the other, it risks being squeezed if Washington extends its protectionist campaign against Indian exports or penalises Russian oil imports further. PM Modi’s presence in Tianjin alongside Xi and Putin will therefore serve as a reminder to Washington that India has options, and that it will not be strong-armed into aligning unconditionally with the US.

India’s unresolved border dispute with China remains a ceiling on how close the two can get. Yet both sides are signalling a willingness to compartmentalise: disagree on security, but cooperate on trade, energy, and global governance when their interests overlap.

The Tianjin summit will be about optics as much as policy. A handshake between Modi and Xi, with Putin by their side, would crystallise the very multipolar world Trump rails against. The SCO will not resolve India-China border tensions or deliver sweeping new economic deals. But it will send a message: that US protectionism and unilateralism are driving the rest of the world to explore alternatives.

Trump set out to punish China and India. Instead, his tariffs are giving Beijing and New Delhi new reasons to find common cause. The SCO summit in Tianjin will be the latest reminder of that paradox.