'Attack on one is attack on both': How far with Saudi Arabia go for Pakistan? Analysing the defence pact through India's lens

A handout picture provided by the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) on September 17, 2025, shows Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (R) welcoming Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif ahead of their meeting in Riyadh.

Pakistan is once again dressing up weakness as strength. The new Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia, trumpeted in Islamabad as a “historic” guarantee that an attack on one will be treated as an attack on both, is being sold as proof of deterrence against India. In reality, it formalises decades of informal cooperation and reflects Pakistan’s growing dependence on Riyadh’s cash and clout rather than a genuine shift in the regional balance.

For India, the pact raises serious questions: would Saudi Arabia really commit troops, logistics or political capital to defend Pakistan in a future conflict, or is this simply symbolic grandstanding? Understanding the deal’s limits is crucial for gauging its true impact on Indian security.

What the pact is about and why now

The agreement was signed during Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to Saudi Arabia at the invitation of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. It formalises what has been for decades a strategic yet informal defence relationship between the two countries. Under the pact, any aggression against one country will be considered aggression against both. It is being billed in Islamabad as a major diplomatic win, and some in Pakistan will interpret it as strategic deterrence against India.

However, Saudi Arabia has emphasised that the pact is not a response to any specific country or event. Officials have said that this is the institutionalisation of long-standing ties rather than a reaction to recent operations such as India’s Operation Sindoor. For India, this raises the question: is this pact primarily symbolic, made for show, or does it involve real commitment of forces, logistics and command sharing that could alter India’s security calculus? India has reacted cautiously, saying it will “study the implications of this development for our national security as well as for regional and global stability.”

How India, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia compare militarily

According to the Global Firepower Index 2025, India is ranked fourth globally while Pakistan is ranked twelfth. India’s active personnel number about 1.46 million compared to Pakistan’s 654,000. India also has a large reserve force and paramilitary forces. In terms of hardware, India fields around 2,229 military aircraft with large numbers of fighter jets, transport and support aircraft, while Pakistan has about 1,399 aircraft and fewer modern fighters. India’s 4,200 main battle tanks dwarf Pakistan’s 2,627, and the Indian Navy maintains more carriers, submarines and destroyers than Pakistan’s smaller sea-going fleet.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is a major military power in the Gulf and spends heavily on defence, ranking close to India in defence spending. Its armed forces are well equipped with modern air assets and substantial funding but are optimised for regional threats such as border security and missile defence rather than expeditionary or full-scale war with another nuclear power across difficult terrain. Logistic and force projection beyond its borders, especially against a major power like India, pose serious constraints. This means that even though Saudi Arabia is powerful, its strategic interests are not necessarily aligned to go to war with India for Pakistan.

Will Saudi Arabia back Pakistan in a military confrontation with India?

Given the above comparative picture, several factors suggest that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to materially back Pakistan in a full-scale war with India. Engaging directly against India risks confronting a country that has nuclear capability, strong military strength and international partnerships. The costs -- military, diplomatic and economic -- could be very high. Saudi Arabia is already balancing multiple priorities such as internal stability, Iran, Yemen and broader Middle East stability. Its diplomacy often seeks to balance relations rather than full alliances.

Speaking to Moneycontrol, veteran journalist and defence analyst Umang Kohli underscored what Saudi Arabia tends to gain from the deal and what are Islamabad’s motives.

“Through this deal Saudi Arabia wants to threaten Israel it wants to say that we have the nuclear power with us if you try to mess around with Saudi Arabia we are going to use the resources of the Islamic world including Pakistan Why Pakistan signed this pact Because Saudi Arabia has a considerable economic might it is energy giant horse Pakistan is in dire need of money investments as well as it needs a corridor to go through Saudi Arabia right up till Europe. So, Pakistan wants an ally which can invest heavily into its defence sector Not a very good thing for India it will have major geopolitical consequences in the years to come,” he told Moneycontrol.

What Kohli’s words also hint at is the transactional nature: Pakistan needs money, investment, strategic shelter. But that does not guarantee that Saudi Arabia will commit militarily in a confrontation with India, especially if such action damages its own economic or diplomatic priorities.

Saudi Arabia also has strong economic ties with India, including deepening trade, investments and joint strategic projects. Disrupting those relations by directly siding against India in war would jeopardise Riyadh’s own long-term interests. While the wording “attack on one is attack on both” sounds strong, real implementation -- troop deployments, logistics, basing, war plans, nuclear sharing -- is not clearly stated in public documents. Saudi officials have repeatedly said the agreement is about mutual deterrence, not necessarily about coming to Pakistan’s military rescue.

India–Saudi ties and Pakistan’s economic dependence

India has worked to develop strong bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia across trade, investment, energy, technology, defence cooperation and diplomacy. Bilateral trade in FY2024-25 stood at about USD 41.88 billion, with Indian exports at approximately USD 11.76 billion and imports around USD 30.12 billion. Indian investment in Saudi Arabia has also increased across sectors such as technology, construction, financial services and pharmaceuticals. Saudi investment in India has been significant as well, through firms like PIF and SALIC.

Pakistan, by contrast, is under severe economic stress -- high debt, inflation, currency devaluation and reliance on foreign assistance. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly bailed out Pakistan with oil on deferred payments, cash infusions and loan rollovers, preventing balance of payments crises and keeping its government afloat. This dependence gives Saudi Arabia leverage over Islamabad and undermines Pakistan’s ability to independently sustain prolonged military operations.

What this means for India

Putting together the military, diplomatic and economic facts, India’s concerns are legitimate but the pact does not automatically translate into a military threat from Pakistan backed by Saudi Arabia. India must prepare for political and diplomatic pressure as Pakistan may use the pact to lobby for international legitimacy or attempt to provoke regional tensions claiming Saudi backing. At the same time, New Delhi should continue deepening its ties with Riyadh to keep Saudi incentives aligned with India’s stability.

India should closely monitor what defence cooperation under this pact really entails -- joint exercises, intelligence sharing, logistics agreements, basing rights, nuclear posture -- since any of these, if concretely defined, could change the strategic balance. Even though Pakistan is weaker, it remains nuclear-capable and adept at asymmetric tactics. With this pact, Pakistan may believe it has a deterrent that might embolden it, but the evidence suggests Saudi Arabia is very unlikely to mount large-scale military support if there is a major confrontation with India.