Asim Munir’s nuclear rhetoric: What Pakistan can actually do and what it means for India

File Photo - Security personnel stand beside a poster of Pakistani Army Chief Syed Asim Munir, during a rally to express solidarity with Pakistan's armed forces, in Islamabad on May 14, 2025.

Pakistan’s de facto ruler, Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, has once again shown why the country’s nuclear weapons programme remains one of the world’s most troubling security risks.

Speaking at a private event in Florida’s Tampa city, and not Islamabad or Rawalpindi, Munir issued an extraordinary double threat: to destroy Indian dams and unleash nuclear devastation if Pakistan faces what he calls an “existential threat.”

On India’s decision to pause the Indus Waters Treaty after the April Pahalgam terror attack, Munir warned: “We will wait for India to build a dam, and when it does so, phir das missile sey faarigh kar dengey [we will destroy it with 10 missiles]… The Indus River is not the Indians’ family property. Humein missilon ki kami nahin hai, al-hamdulillah [we have no shortage of missiles, Praise be to God].”

From there, the rhetoric escalated into an unprecedented nuclear threat, reportedly the first time such an ultimatum has been delivered from US soil against a third country: “We are a nuclear nation, if we think we are going down, we’ll take half the world down with us.”

The event, hosted by businessman and honorary consul Adnan Asad, barred cellphones and digital devices. Around 120 members of the Pakistani diaspora attended, alongside a representative of the Israel Defence Forces. Munir’s visit to Tampa coincided with the retirement ceremony of US CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla, and comes less than two months after he met US President Donald Trump in the White House.

Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and who controls it

While Munir’s rhetoric may sound like bluster, it is backed by a substantial nuclear capability. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Pakistan holds an estimated 170 nuclear warheads as of early 2025, compared to India’s 180. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists notes Islamabad’s potential to expand this arsenal quickly, supported by new missile systems, four plutonium production reactors, and an expanding uranium enrichment network.

Pakistan’s delivery systems are primarily mobile short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, many with the range to strike deep inside India. China’s ongoing technical assistance has further strengthened these capabilities. The country reportedly spent $1 billion on its nuclear weapons programme in 2023 alone.

Control over these weapons lies -- on paper -- with Pakistan’s civilian leadership through the National Command Authority (NCA), chaired by the prime minister. However, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has long observed that in a military crisis, the armed forces would likely prevail in nuclear decision-making. In other words, figures like Munir could have decisive influence over when and how these weapons are used.

What Munir’s threats mean for India

Asim Munir’s threat sounds more than just tough talk; it reflects the military’s long-standing strategy of keeping the option of nuclear escalation open, even during conventional conflicts. His specific warning about India’s dams ties into Pakistan’s deep concerns over water security, an issue Islamabad has often used to justify hostility.

By portraying India’s infrastructure projects as existential threats, Munir is signalling that Pakistan could see even non-military developments as reasons for military, or even nuclear, retaliation. This raises the risk of escalation during future crises, not only in wartime but also over issues like water rights.

Such a posture means India may face shorter decision-making windows in any conflict, with Pakistan’s military leadership keeping tight control over nuclear decisions. The absence of a clear, declared Pakistani nuclear doctrine adds further uncertainty to the region’s security environment.