As Musk tops $800 billion, his trillionaire path runs through SpaceX, not Tesla. Here’s why

A blockbuster SpaceX-xAI deal has made rockets and AI the main drivers of Elon Musk’s fortune, pushing him closer to trillionaire status.

• Musk's net worth hits $845 billion, driven mainly by SpaceX and xAI merger
• SpaceX now makes up nearly two-thirds of Musk's wealth, surpassing Tesla
• Tesla's role in Musk's fortune is shrinking as SpaceX and xAI grow

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Elon Musk’s path to becoming the world’s first trillionaire is increasingly being powered by rockets rather than electric cars.

According to Forbes, Musk became the first person ever to cross the $800 billion mark this week, with his net worth now estimated at about $845 billion. That puts him worth more than the next three richest people combined, Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

SpaceX-xAI deal reshapes Musk’s fortune

The surge follows a major shift in Musk’s empire. His aerospace and defence company SpaceX acquired his artificial intelligence and social media firm xAI this week in a deal that valued the combined entity at $1.25 trillion, according to financial documents reviewed by CNBC.

With Musk owning an estimated 43 percent of the merged company, his stake alone would be worth more than $530 billion, meaning SpaceX now accounts for nearly two-thirds of his total wealth.

Tesla’s role is shrinking

That shift is already reflected at Tesla. In its latest proxy filing, Tesla acknowledged that 'a majority of Mr. Musk’s wealth is now derived from other business ventures,' signalling a reduced centrality of the EV maker in Musk’s financial picture.

Musk has said he wants to take SpaceX public in 2026, a move that would further dilute Tesla’s share of his liquid wealth. But public market investors may hesitate to value a company that blends a defence contractor and satellite operator with a cash-hungry AI developer competing with Google, OpenAI and Anthropic.

Government contracts and capital hunger

SpaceX’s scale is underpinned by government business. The company has received more than $20 billion in federal contracts, according to research from FedScout, with more deals likely in the pipeline. Musk has framed the xAI acquisition as a step toward building “orbital data centers.”

“You’ve muddied up your story a little bit as a pure-play SpaceX shareholder, but the opportunity has gotten a lot bigger,” Greg Martin, managing director at Rainmaker Securities, told CNBC. “It makes sense for them to access a much larger capital market, especially with xAI, which does have insatiable need for capital.”

Regulatory and political overhangs

xAI is facing investigations in Europe, Asia, Australia and California after its Grok image generator allowed the creation of explicit deepfake images of women and children. It remains unclear whether the SpaceX-xAI merger itself will face regulatory scrutiny. Separately, Democratic senators have urged the Pentagon to probe SpaceX over alleged undisclosed Chinese investors.

Tesla incentives still matter

Despite SpaceX’s rise, Musk still has strong incentives to stay engaged at Tesla. Shareholders last year approved a new compensation package that could pay out up to $1 trillion over the next decade if Tesla meets aggressive market-cap and operational targets. The first tranche unlocks only if Tesla hits a $2 trillion valuation, roughly $460 billion above current levels.

Tesla said the package was designed to “prevent him from prioritizing those other ventures.” But Columbia Law professor Dorothy Lund told CNBC that the strategy may fall short, as Musk negotiates pay across multiple companies competing for his attention.

What it takes to reach a trillion

Before the xAI deal, Musk owned about 42 percent of SpaceX and controlled 80 percent of the voting power, according to FCC filings. His Tesla ownership stands between 11 percent and 15 percent, depending on calculations.

With Tesla shares down about 9 percent this year amid weaker auto sales and delayed robotaxi and robotics promises, SpaceX and xAI are now the clearest route to the next milestone. Based on Musk’s stake, the combined company would need to reach a valuation of roughly $1.6 trillion, assuming Tesla remains flat, for him to officially become a trillionaire.

Some investors believe Musk may never list SpaceX on its own. Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki, told CNBC he expects Musk to eventually merge SpaceX and Tesla under a single umbrella, potentially listed as 'X.'

“How else is Musk supposed to compete and become a major AI player?” Gerber asked.