MC EXCLUSIVE Flat July-Aug shipments, muted festival season set to pull India’s smartphone market down this year

Smartphones

India's smartphone market is projected to remain flat in the third quarter of 2025, with shipments at about 46 million units, similar to the previous year, exclusive IDC data shared with Moneycontrol shows.

While the second quarter was stronger than expected, the market stagnation points to continued weak consumer demand. In the second half of the year, Apple is expected to sustain positive momentum, even as rival Android brands continue to face headwinds.

With Diwali coming earlier in October, Q4 volumes may also soften, pulling full-year shipments down to 148–149 million units, below previous year’s 151 million, Upasna Joshi, research manager at IDC, said.

The third quarter typically accounts for 30–35 percent of annual smartphone shipments, with the timing of Diwali influencing the share.

The market started 2025 on a slow note, posting a 6 percent year-over-year decline in the first quarter. It rebounded in Q2, as brands stepped up promotions and advanced some new product launches to test festive season demand.

The first half ended with 70 million shipments, representing a 1 percent growth amid cautious consumer spending and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

Mid-range, premium segments in demand

While overall volumes remain flat, certain segments are seeing strong growth. The sub-$200 category will continue to lead the market, accounting for nearly half of all shipments despite a slight YoY decline.

“The $200–$400 range is expected to see minimal growth due to market saturation, while the $400–$800 brackets are poised for significant expansion,” Joshi said.

The $400–$600 segment will benefit from festival pricing on mid-range devices from Chinese brands and older Apple and Samsung models.

The $600–$800 tier is projected to grow in double digits as consumers seek affordable upgrades on last year’s flagships. In contrast, the over-$800 category is likely to remain flat, as buyers opt for discounted older premium models, she said.

Apple thrives, Android faces headwinds

Apple is expected to maintain strong momentum in the second half of the year, while Android phones faces challenges.

iPhone shipments are projected to cross 5 million units in the September quarter, with the iPhone 17 series accounting for 15–20 percent of sales, even as older models continue to dominate.

Apple shipped about 4 million iPhones in Q3 2024, with new models contributing roughly 10 percent to volumes. The bulk came from the iPhone 16 and iPhone 15 series.

The battle between online and offline/mainline channels is intensifying.

While online shipments have been declining since the start of the year, they are expected to rebound strongly in Q3 thanks to mega-festive sales events from Amazon and Flipkart, temporarily outpacing mainline channel growth.

For the full year, online shipments are projected to contract faster than offline over the previous year. A key point of interest will be how offline retailers manage to compete with the aggressive discounts and offers from major e-commerce players like Flipkart and Amazon, Joshi said.