Ukraine’s looming weapons crisis: How the end of US military aid could impact the war effort

In 2024, Europe increased its military support to Ukraine, surpassing the US in total aid.

Ukraine’s military has relied heavily on US aid to sustain its defence against Russia’s invasion, but with the potential for a reduction or cessation of this aid, the country faces an uncertain future. US weapons and resources have been essential in Ukraine's efforts to repel Russian forces, but as US support becomes uncertain under US President Donald Trump’s criticisms of Ukrainian President Zelensky, Ukraine may soon find itself unable to continue at its current pace, according to The New York Times.

The potential fallout of ending US aid

Currently, Ukraine can continue fighting at its current pace through the summer, thanks to large shipments arranged by the Biden administration. After that, however, without fresh supplies, Ukraine may run out of ammunition and struggle to use advanced weaponry. US aid has provided essential systems such as air-defence systems, ballistic missiles, and long-range artillery—capabilities that are difficult, if not impossible, to replace quickly through European production.

The New York Times reports that Ukraine has ramped up its own weapons industry, producing $30 billion in military hardware annually, including drones and artillery shells. However, it still relies on Western supplies for advanced technology. For instance, US-supplied air-defence systems like Patriots and the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) are irreplaceable in the short term, and their absence would leave gaps in Ukraine's defence capabilities.

European support: A potential lifeline?

In 2024, Europe increased its military support to Ukraine, surpassing the US in total aid. The EU, the UK, and Norway have committed to increasing military aid further, but experts warn that Europe may not be able to fully replace American-made technologies. Europe’s production of artillery shells and munitions is rising, but in areas like air defence and long-range missile capabilities, Europe is still behind.

As noted by The New York Times, the US has provided technologies, such as the Patriot air-defence system, which Europe cannot produce. Without these systems, Ukraine would have to make tough decisions about which areas to protect and which to leave vulnerable. European countries may be able to fill some of the gaps, but analysts doubt they can match the full scope of US capabilities.

Trump’s impact on future aid

Former President Trump’s statements against President Zelensky and his criticism of US aid have raised concerns in Kyiv. Trump’s comments, accusing Zelensky of provoking the war and calling him a dictator, echo Kremlin talking points and suggest that US aid could be significantly reduced under a potential Trump administration.

In addition, some Republican members of Congress oppose further aid to Ukraine, leaving its future military support uncertain. Without this critical US backing, Ukraine may be forced to turn

more to Europe and its domestic production to continue the fight. This would likely result in slower progress and greater challenges on the battlefield.

The challenge of replacing US weapons systems

While Ukraine has been able to produce some of its own munitions, the loss of US-supplied systems would severely limit its military effectiveness. Without advanced air-defence systems and long-range missile capabilities, Ukraine’s ability to defend critical infrastructure and strike Russian positions at a distance would be compromised.

Ukraine’s reliance on US technologies like the ATACMS missile system, which can strike up to 186 miles away, highlights the gaps in its capabilities without American support. Similarly, US support for SpaceX’s Starlink internet service has enabled secure communications on the front lines, another aspect at risk if aid is reduced.

If US military aid to Ukraine ends, the country will face significant challenges in maintaining its defence. While Europe is stepping up its support, it cannot fully replace the advanced weaponry and systems provided by the US As Ukraine’s fight against Russia continues, securing continued support from both the US and Europe will be crucial to its survival on the battlefield.