Donald Trump a deal-maker & India can take heart from it

As the CEO of the world’s largest economy, I expect him to swap a protectionist campaign rhetoric with a pragmatic approach that hinges on growth, investment and commerce. It is important to take a cue from his post-victory speech where he cited rebuilding America’s infrastructure as one of his biggest priorities.He is unlikely to drastically alter the previous administration’s approach to geopolitics and foreign relations — as the commander-in-chief of the world's most powerful military force, he is likely to continue playing the arbiter in the regional power struggles around the world; but over time, there could be subtle shifts. It is unlikely that any President can do more than subtle changes. Like many US Presidents before him, he will mostly do things that are in the interests of his country. So expect the US to continue with efforts to replace Russia as India’s largest arms supplier. The US will also continue to back India’s position on nuclear energy.But US and Indian interests naturally converge on many other areas, and Trump’s election may turn out to be a positive — as the Bush era was.  His party is also looking at India as a natural ally over time.Trump’s borrowing of Modi’s election slogan for his campaign among US voters of Indian origin could either be construed as shrewd marketing --- or genuine warmth towards Indians. He also shares India’s concerns about Pakistan and China. He may be less ambivalent about supporting India on the Kashmir issue. Trump has also been bitterly critical of China and may take a tougher stand on China’s economic and geopolitical practices, a stance that might work in India’s interests. It is unlikely that Trump would make too many changes to the Obama-Clinton policy of ‘Pivot to Asia’ and will continue to back India so as to create an effective counterweight in Asia. Of course, there would be a few Indian concerns as well. Trump recently berated IBM for sacking employees in the US to send jobs to India and elsewhere. He threatened to impose 35 percent tax on the companies that outsource work. Creating more jobs and restricting outsourcing, in fact, was the cornerstone of Trump’s election campaign. Yet, with the elections done and dusted, Trump may opt for a balancing act: getting US firms to deliver local jobs on the one hand, but also provide affordable products and services to American consumers, which is not possible without outsourcing. On his campaign trail, Trump also took a stance against foreign workers in the US and against immigration. Yet we could expect some recalibration because the US depends on highly-skilled immigrants and foreign workers in order to maintain its leadership in innovation. Nevertheless, India should expect harder and tougher negotiations on the quantum and costs of H1B visas for Indian techies.Protection of intellectual property could be a source of trade friction under President Elect Trump. He may drive a harder bargain to promote the interests of US companies, particularly in the pharma sector. However, he is unlikely to erect barriers that come in the way of affordable healthcare for members of the American working class, many of whom voted him to power. Overall, India can look at Trump’s presidency with more optimism than concern. Most importantly, India can take confidence from the fact that Trump is essentially a deal maker and not an ideologue. This may make it easier for India to do business with the new US president.(Sunil Kant Munjal, President, AIMA and Chairman, Hero Corporate Service)