The September quarter results may be largely irrelevant--sandwiched between export front-loading before Trump's tariff deadline and consumer spending deferred for the GST cuts. Much depends on how soon we can pull out the rusty nail of Trump's tariffs
In a week where the fault lines of markets, technology, and policy all seemed to move at once, the only certainty is that change is now a constant
The latest trade move may mark the most serious test of the India-US relationship in decades
As geopolitics reshapes trade flows and domestic data reveals cracks in demand, markets are adjusting unevenly—pricing in policy shifts while grappling with earnings ambiguity
Markets find Leonard Cohen's cracks of light amid Trump's tariff threats and India's subdued earnings season
Halfway into 2025, global markets and the economy continue to defy forecasts of doom with defiant cheerfulness
India's economy grew 6.5 percent in FY25, with a robust 7.4 percent expansion in Q4 despite global headwinds and domestic uncertainty, signalling underlying resilience
The Trump regime, with its erratic and shifting policies, will continue to reshape markets in unpredictable and often disruptive ways
As markets cheer temporary truces, the real story is America's struggle to navigate a world where its dominance is fading, and systemic chaos reshapes global trade and power structures
Our markets are dancing through the chaos. Nobody does it better than India. Believe me
Policy uncertainty indices are near all- time highs, yet market volatility indices do not reflect that. Does this signal investor confidence, or are markets under-estimating the problem?
With Trump's policies threatening to rock the world and with the Indian economy slowing down, we need an extraordinary budget to Make India Great Again
January 20th will mark a new era in international relations, with the US having no compunction in throwing its weight around both on allies and adversaries
The problem is not that growth is slowing from the immediate post-pandemic period, which is understandable, but that it's well below the average GDP growth rate between 2013-14 and 2028-19
India's valuations have cooled in the last quarter of 2024, but the IPO queue does not seem to be thinning
Simply put, the markets expected not one but two Santas--Santa Trump and Santa Powell
The state of the world at present echoes that of the 1930s, this time with nukes
Going by the RBI's consumer survey, people are saying there's more to the consumer slowdown than inflation--lower incomes and deteriorating job prospects are an underlying structural reason
It is under the unenviable circumstances of growth being well below expectations and inflation being well above expectations that the MPC will have to decide whether to cut rates at its meeting next week
There is great disorder under Heaven. The situation is excellent
Though markets have taken a beating this week, there is enough optimism left among investors with an undercurrent of disquiet
At the moment, the US equity markets are pricing in all the positives of likely Trump policies and none of the negatives
There is considerable nervousness among US elites about a Trump victory as it will ratchet up uncertainty, while Harris is the status quo candidate