The Finance Ministry is finalizing the contours of the deal, and a Cabinet approval for the compensation could be sought soon, it is learnt.
The government is likely to give a nod to hike kerosene prices by 0.25 paise a litre per month till April 2017. If this comes through then the upstream oil companies like ONGC, Oil India will benefit.
Of the Rs 8000 crore under recovery on kerosene and cooking gas for the September quarter, the government's share of the subsidy bill is around Rs 7300 crore. ONGC's share is seen at approximately Rs 600 crore, and OIL India's contribution is seen below Rs 100 crore.
IOC Chairman Ashok expects the company‘s interest costs to fall by Rs 1500-2000 crore annually
Close on the heels of quarterly results of oil companies and a possible 5 percent divestment in ONGC, the Oil Ministry has proposed a new subsidy sharing proposal with the Finance Minister.
Under-recoveries for FY15 may about halve to Rs 77,000 crore, learns CNBC-TV18. But the oil ministry is keen the government pay the remainder of the subsidy bill.
As an editorial in the Business Standard points out today, the government‘s move to hike excise duty on petrol and diesel twice in the past 15 days and the OMCs‘ decision to not pass on the hike to consumer reeks of lack of freedom.
The interest costs for the company would be lower by 30-40% in FY15 compared to the last fiscal said B Ashok, chairman, IOC.
For FY15, the government has forecast fuel subsidies to stand at about Rs 63,426 crore but the final figure could be less.
Under-recovery or the difference between retail price and its imported cost on diesel was 8 paisa per litre in the first half of September. The under-recovery in the second half has turned into over-recovery or profit of 35 paisa per litre.
Sudhir Vasudeva, former chairman and managing director of ONGC says cost of gas production needs to be raised from USD 4.4 mmBtu soon. He believes gas pricing is the biggest issue faced by oil and gas companies now and an increase in prices is a must at this point.
Congress-led UPA controlled rates as interntional oil prices went through the roof. In June 2010 however it freed petrol price from its control and rates have since them moved more or less in tandem with cost.
Under-recovery was Rs 1.78 per litre during second fortnight of August 2014. A gradual increase, with diesel price hikes every fortnight, and stable oil prices in international market have aided this narrowing of gap.
The brokerage sees almost no losses on diesel after September price hike and expects greatest upside for HPCL and BPCL with improving marketing margins. As losses on retail diesel sales are now down to Rs 0.8 per litre, Goldman Sachs estimates it to fall to Rs 0.3 per litre after the price hike on September.
PK Goyal, Director-Finance, IOC says the loss can be attributed to lower under-recoveries. The company's refinery margins stood at USD 4.97/barrel, higher than last year‘s USD 3.11/barrel.
With diesel under-recoveries still at a steep Rs 10.5 per litre, it is only a matter of time before the government does away completely with price controls, believes Sudhir Vasudeva, CMD, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation.
Some part of the benefit that upstream companies like ONGC saw because of rupee depreciation will be taken away by the government in the form of higher subsidies, says Amit Rustagi of Antique Stock Broking. So instead of Rs 60,000 crore last year, ONGC may be bearing Rs 70,000 crore under recovery this year.
Global crude price in FY14 started to soften and the government introduced a monthly price hike of 50 paise per litre on diesel. The combined effect was a projection of only Rs 80,000 crore as under-recovery for FY14 – a straight cut of 50% from last year. But with rupee fall now, under-recovery projection is now back to Rs 1.6 lakh crore.
Hit by a double whammy of rising crude prices and depreciating rupee, PK Goyal, director-finance, IOC, says the oil marketing company will face an under recovery of Rs 12800 cr for per unit rise in crude pirce and per unit fall in rupee level.
Consumption of Petrol in the country has grown at 4.5 percent in current year as compared to 8-9 percent growth due to rising price of the fuel, says PK Goyal, Director Finance, IOC
PK Goyal, Director Finance, IOC believes if the the under-recovery trend for diesel continues then for FY14 it will be sees at Rs 59,000 crore.
There may be some upside to the company's margins with the gas price hike implementation, said Aloke Kumar Banerjee of ONGC. He added that the impact would also be felt on the overall investment scenario in the oil and gas sector.
Based on 57/USD as the exchange rate, the under recovery on diesel stands at Rs 6.30, he added.
BPCL Chairman and Managing Director RK Singh sees petrol prices to go up from June 1 due to depreciation in rupee.
Oil ministry has in-principal agreed to adopt export parity pricing for petroleum products after a meeting with finance minister and PMO, OMC stocks are down 4-6% following the news.