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This marks an abrupt shift in the economists’ expectations at a time of surging inflation and tumbling unemployment
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James Bullard, president of the St Louis Fed, has dismissed concerns the labour market recovery was faltering
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In today’s edition of Moneycontrol Pro Panorama: The T word, Monsoon Watch, why Sundram’s Arathi Krishna is upbeat, Burger King’s more zing, a labour windfall, the Eastern Window, GuruSpeak and much more
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A large part of RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan's speech at a banking conference today continued to focus on what the inflation fight still needs to be fought.
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Even if the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates, the world will continue to remain awash with liquidity, said Deutsche strategist Sameer Goel. Indian macros will help its bond, stock and currency markets, he said.
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The Fed is widely expected to take a knife to some of the language in its statement that set an unemployment rate of 6.5 percent as a level to cut rates.
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UR Bhat, MD, Dalton Capital Advisors is cautious about the hope trade. However, he believes the Modi trade is worth playing. He says cyclicals will start looking better on the hope that huge changes will happen.
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Art Cashin, UBS' director of floor operations at NYSE, told CNBC that, "She said, 'We will continue to taper,' but left the door open very slightly saying that if the data continues to deteriorate that they might reconsider and taper the tapering."
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Increasing its exposure for the third straight month, India owned American government securities worth USD 68.5 billion at the end of December 2013.
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In her first public remarks since taking over for Ben Bernanke, the former head of the San Francisco Fed sounded optimistic about the economy, including projections about unemployment and inflation.
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EM currencies in focus due to tapering fears
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On the IT sector, however, Sanjay Sinha of Citrus Advisors, is more bullish on the madcap names like MindTree and Persistent Systems.
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Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are getting panicked about the Federal Reserve‘s taper. Nimesh Shah of CNBC-TV18 is here to explain you the reasons.
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If the Fed goes for tapering of USD 10 billion then market may see further weakness and that will be very bad and market should remain prepared to see Nifty at 6000 level tomorrow being our expiry day, says SP Tulsian.
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Ken Rogoff, Professor-Economics of Harvard University believes the US Federal Reserve is not looking to tighten monetary policy, but is working to change it.
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David Lennox, analyst, Fat Prophets says Brent Crude is likely to have a good year as the demand in China, US and Europe is likely to grow well.
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"When there is a degree of confidence particularly in the US and in the large US investor community, that confidence actually spills over favorably to the rest of the world as opposed to unfavorably," Piyush Gupta, chief executive of DBS Group.
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"The door has to be seen as open for changing the pace at which the Fed trims the programme," said Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker.
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Among cyclicals, Amit Rathi is bullish on autos, engineering and construction and to some extent, private sector banks.
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After months of speculation, markets were unfazed by the event, with major indices actually rallying in response, in stark contrast to the 16 percent sell-off seen on the MSCI Emerging Market index seen from late May to June.
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There could be a positive surprise in the US market in 2014 since the US Federal Reserve is exuding more confidence about the country‘s growth and US growth could be stronger than what the Fed expects, Ridham Desai, MD, Morgan Stanley said.
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According to Callum Henderson, Standard Chartered Bank, the Asian and emerging market (EM) currencies are likely to be under pressure in the first half of 2014 whereas the developed market currencies will outperform, starting with the dollar.
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The QE and its impact on market movement has often left experts with no way but to resort to explanations that consciously looked at the glass either half-empty or half-full depending on the event under consideration.
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"The PE on the Indian share is about 14 times forward earnings, whereas in China it is about 9 times. So I think there is better value elsewhere," says Shane Oliver of AMP Capital.
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In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Sameer Goel, Head of Asia Rates & Currency Research, Deutsche Bank, said he believes the Indian currency may be impacted in the short term but improving fundamentals would likely shore it up next year.
