There are expectations that the Bank of Japan could start lending to banks at negative rates, says Nizam Idris of Macquarie.
Nizam Idris, Managing Director, Head of Strategy, Fixed Income and Currencies, Macquarie Bank, believes Federal Reserves' decision of not to hike rates isn‘t a bit surprise. He feels there was a bit more dovishness in its tone.
While the year so-far has not fared very well for the Indian rupee, Nizam Idris, head-EM Forex Strategy, Macquarie, says the rupee may see levels of 63.5 against the dollar by Q3.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Idris says the rupee may trade in a range of 63.0-63.50 to the dollar near term. He says the rupee is being helped by both local and global factors, with falling commodity prices being an important support.
Nizam Idris, Head-EM FX Strategy, Macquarie, says the rupee may not suffer on the back of a US Fed rate hike, an event he believes is more likely to occur in September than December.
According to Nizam Idris, Head of Emerging Market Forex Strategy at Macquarie, India remains a decent reform story although uncertainty over tax issue remains a challenge.
Amid speculation that the Fed may hike interest rates from middle of this year, dollar has strengthened against euro and yen. However, the mood in emerging market, including India, remained skittish owing to mounting pressure from risk aversion.
Global uncertainty and risk aversion may lead to RBI wanting to delay a rate cut, says Nizam Idris, head of EM FX strategy, Macquarie.
According to him, the Indian currency will stabilise if oil prices attain some stability. He expects rupee to hover around 64-65 against the dollar going ahead.
However, given that fundamentals of India better placed than Russia and Brazil, Nizam Idris of Macquarie Bank is confident of rupee outperforming against other EM currencies.
"Overall if we do get a scenario where the dollar strengthens more broadly - and we do see that - then it will be pretty hard for most EM currencies to remain resilient... But we don't see as an aggressive sell-off as we saw last year," said Dominic Bunning, currency strategist at HSBC.
Currently the dollar index is at 81 and Nizam Idris of Macquarie feels dollar in the short-term probably is going to see a range of around 80-82. He feels this range will only be broken on the upside when taper becomes imminent.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Nizam Idris of Macquarie sees the delayed taper as the largest driver for emerging market currencies. He sees the rupee to find support at 60/USD going forward.
Bond yields rose, with the 10-year bond yield closing at the day's high of 8.58 percent, up 39 bps on the day. The negative spread between the 1-year and 5-year OIS shrunk to 46 bps from 70 bps on Thursday.
Rupee will find key support at 61/USD in the near-term and may depreciate to 65/USD if macros don‘t improve, says Nizam Idris, Head of EM Fx Strategy.
RBI's announcement to buy bonds has confused the market and by buying bonds the central bank is subsidising outflow at a better price, so the market is still looking to sell the rupee, says Nizam Idris of Macquarie.
According to Nizam Idris, if the trade deficit data for August is less than 10 billion then it is a positive for the economy and that may stabilise the rupee.
There has not been much appreciation in the rupee because fundamentally the rupee should continue to weaken given the Current Account Deficit (CAD) and fiscal deficit, says Nizam Idris of Macquarie.
Nizam Idris, Head of EM Fx Strategy, Macquarie sees pressure in rupee due to strengthening of dollar. He told CNBC-TV18 that he is expecting rupee to breach the 61 per dollar mark.
Macquarie's Nizam Idris sees rupee breaching 61/USD in the near-term. He, however, expects rupee to stabilise in medium term.
Rupee will soon hit the 57 mark, says Nizam Idris, head of EM FX Strategy, Macquarie.
Vivek Rajpal, Rates Strategist, Nomura India believes the rupee will not move below 50 per dollar in the near term. But, there are fair chances that it wil appreciate to 52 or slightly lower levels.
The Indian rupee tanked to a fresh all-time low of Rs 53.75 per US dollar in early trade on Wednesday, thanks to the balance of payment (BoP) imbalances said Nizam Idris, Head of EM FX Strategy, Macquarie.