Rupee range for H2/2016 is set at 67-70 against H1/2016 outlook at 66-69, with marginal time-decay value adjustment.
A raft of measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) seems to have fallen flat. The Indian rupee on Monday closed all time record low at 63.13 as against the US dollar. The 10-year benchmark bond yield spiked nearly 35 basis points to 9.23 percent.
As expected the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) further curbed the availibility of funds (liquidity) in the markets to stem the rupee's free fall against the US dollar. The central bank will now auction the government of India cash management bills (CMBs) to raise Rs 22,000 crore on every Monday.
The Indian rupee recently hit record low at 61.32/USD. Since May, it has lost more than 11 percent against the greenback. This along with the widening current account deficit (CAD) have prompted the authorities to burn the midnight oil to devise strategies in wooing overseas investors.
Representatives from the banking sector, independent treasury expert Moses Harding and Gaurav Kapur, senior Economist, RBS, in a discussion on CNBC-TV18, welcome the central bank's move to put a squeeze liquidity and credit will see the rupee settle at around 59.
In a major attack to clamp the further decline in the Indian rupee against the US dollar, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday late evening issued a series of liquidity measures. Bonds yields are now expected to go up while a dearer rupee is likely to create a squeeze in funds availability. Consequently, the demand for rupee will rise.
Moses Harding of IndusInd Bank says the quantitative easing (QE) unwinding will take place sooner or later and hence he is not bullish on the currency, yet.
The news of issuance of banking licenses to corporate and non-bank financial entities evoked mixed response. Let me analyse the need for more banks from the perspective of different stake holders, says Moses Harding, Head - ALCO and Economic & Market Research, IndusInd Bank.
Moses Harding of IndusInd speaks to CNBC-TV18 that the rupee was depreciating due to dollar strengthening and weak global equity. He added that the crude oil prices pushing beyond USD 100/barrel is fuelling the fall.
With the rupee touching 60 on Wednesday, Moses Harding, IndusInd Bank, head - ALCO and economic & market research says the reason behind the sharp drop in the currency was the extended rally in the dollar index. He says that there is risk of the rupee extending its fall and touching 61.5-62 levels.
The Indian rupee on Friday rose 30 paisa or 0.50 percent to close at 59.27 against the US dollar, aided by corporate fund inflows. The local currency on Thursday had hit record low at 59.98/US$ as foreign institutional investors (FII) exited their investments in emerging markets like India to invest in US treasury bonds.
Currently, the ball is in government's court to ensure that rupee stays within 58-60/USD and prevent extended weakness beyond 60/USD at his stage, said Moses Harding of IndusInd Bank.
Indian government bonds on Thursday hit the lower circuit on the back of excessive selling by foreign institutional investors (FII), who were lured by lower US Treasury bond prices. Trading was frozen on Thursday for about 45 minute between 9.15am and 10am, traders said.
Moses Harding of Indusind Bank told CNBC-TV18 that the central bank was trying to protect the 59.90-60/USD range so that it does not touch a new low beyond 60/USd. He added thatdollar supplying to arrest the slide was not the solution to the problem.
The Indian rupee on Thursday hit a record low at 59.98 against the US dollar prompting the Reserve Bank of India to check its freefalling. Finally, the local currency closed at 59.57 against the greenback, nearly 1.50 percent or 87 paisa lower than the Wednesday close at 58.70 percent.
Foreign fund selling in Indian equities have picked up pace to add to the huge sell-off in debt markets.
Moses Harding of IndusInd opines that the rupee breaking out of it 53-55/USD range on the upside caused the panic as every one expected 57/USD to be a safe level.
Inflation index bonds were fully subscribed in RBI's auction on Tuesday. The effective interest rate comes around 8 percent. Largest institutions and primary dealers participated in the auction.
Banks are not passing the rate cut benefits even after RBI slashed 75 basis points in the policy or repo rate. Experts believe, lenders will transmit policy actions when the central bank shifts policy rate to reverse repo mode. A brief analysis follows....
The drop in the bond yields will not only boost trading income from huge excess SLR portfolio at over Rs 4 lakh crore but also improve the mark-to-market of HTM category. Banks will cut lending rates only when the operating policy rate shifts from repo to reverse repo, says Moses Harding, head of asset liability committee at IndusInd Bank.
The Indian economy and its asset markets encounters strong headwinds from all sides, hurting the investor sentiment and confidence. The Euro zone crisis strikes back through Cyprus and there is fear of more in pipe-line: Moses
RBI delivered to expectation on policy rates, and not delivering CRR cut is not relevant to markets with option to release liquidity through Bond/USD purchases.
Moses Harding, IndusInd Bank has come out with its market pulse weekly report for March 18-22, 2013.
RBI is seen obliged for shift into dovish monetary policy stance. There is unanimous expectation of 25 bps cut in policy rates and CRR on 19th March mid-quarter review of monetary policy, says Moses Harding, IndusInd Bank.
The Finance Minister has tightened the screws on loose fiscal policy by delivering 5.2% fiscal deficit for FY13, and seen very confident on delivery of FY14 budget estimate of 4.8%: Moses Harding, IndusInd Bank.