A tactical cash build-up by domestic funds ahead of January earnings and stretched valuations are among the reasons why the broader market momentum seems to have paused. Experts feel large-caps may continue to outperform in the near term as investors prioritise safety over momentum.
There is a 50 percent possibility of a tactical rally if the levies on Indian exports come off, Chris Wood added, calling them 'anomalous' and triggered by President Trump's 'personal pique' over the recent India-Pakistan dispute.
This monthly data of net equity flow is likely a multi-month high and broad-based across most equity categories, signalling renewed investor appetite after a relatively moderate June.
The Iran-Israel conflict has set the stage for a week that will see US Fed and BoJ consider key policy decisions, along with a summit level meeting of Group of Seven leaders, and market participants will weight if the cues get further complicated.
One big hope for the market is that the tax relief provided by the finance minister will help increase domestic investment.
Despite the foreign selling in October-November, India's equity markets have barely come off 8-10% from record highs. Now, as the world enters an uncertain year, the outlook for EM equities remains promising with themes like capex plays, consumption, rural recovery, telecom, healthcare, and financial services poised to do well in 2025, according to Nilesh Shah of Kotak AMC.
For the year so far, FIIs have net sold Rs 2.94 lakh crore worth of shares, while DIIs have net bought Rs 5.82 lakh crore worth of shares.
After a strong bout of selling seen during October and November, when foreign institutional investors sold shares worth $14 billion in just eight weeks, FIIs have started to look for value emerge in select pockets.
During the trading session, DIIs bought Rs 14,556 crore and sold shares worth Rs 10,356 crore, and FIIs purchased Rs 16,560 crore in shares while offloading equities worth Rs 21,880 crore.
Global funds have been net sellers of emerging market debt, driven in part by the rising US Treasury yields.
On a valuation basis, India’s premium over emerging markets is at the highest level in over five years. At 22.8 times, one-year forward earnings are almost double of the MSCI Emerging Market Index, which stands at 12.8 times.
Traders are standing at the doors, waiting to exit at the first sign of trouble.
Brad Durham, the managing director of EPFR Global, tells CNBC-TV18 that flows over the past week into emerging market equities have thinned out because of the anticipation of a correction.