US President Trump’s tariff and penalty on India has sparked concerns over trade, inflation and foreign flows. Global markets expert Seth Freeman does not believe the levies will trigger an outflow, and advised investors to keep a 'slow and steady' approach.
While the trend is expected to continue, experts caution that India will need strong earnings growth to absorb the significant liquidity
"An investor wants to go where the growth is" - Bill Gross
Innovations around EM indices are required with more thematic benchmarks
As he prepares to launch the new fund in January 2025, Mobius addressed market volatility by citing the wisdom of Sir John Templeton: The best time to invest is when you have money.
Meanwhile, Taiwan is competing fiercely with India in the race to replace China’s top spot in emerging market equity portfolios. As of the end of July, Taiwan accounted for 18.39% of MSCI’s EM index.
Analysts believe a trend reversal in bond yields and the dollar would prove to be beneficial for emerging markets like India amid strong corporate earnings growth
Retreating oil prices, treasury yields, and dollar rates will make foreign institutional investors return to Indian markets, Mark Matthews, head of research-Asia, Juluis Baer Group, has said
BIS review says, ‘As EME currencies recouped more than half of their 2022 losses against the dollar, their stock markets followed suit, and turned from under- to over-performance against global benchmarks’
While the market level valuation ratios look high compared to other markets, one needs to keep in mind that India is a more domestic economy with less impact of global factors
The US dollar index (DXY) has halted in its tracks and is unable to rally as forcefully as was the case in the last few months
The drive in commodities, manufacturing, data flows and economic reform could make 2021 the year the tide turned
The overdrive saw higher inflation, higher interest rates and currency depreciation, partly neutralising the sugar high of stimulus
Borrowing through eurobonds — debt issued overseas, mostly in dollars, euros and yen — reached a new quarterly peak in the three months to March, according to data from Dealogic and Moody’s Investors Service
The currencies of developing economies have fared less well than anticipated, while the dollar has gained nearly 3 per cent in the first quarter of 2021
The Bank of America survey of global fund managers finds net overweight on emerging markets almost back to pre-COVID levels
Would look for distribution of capital expenditures more towards growth as opposed to subsidies from Budget 2018, said Caesar Maasry, Head of Emerging Market Equity Strategy, Goldman Sachs.
It is start of a re-rating for emerging markets and the positive trade is to move out of international assets into emerging market assets, said Laurence Balanco of CLSA.
The house is still constructive on EM equities for next year and still remain overweight on India, said Geoffrey Dennis, Head-Global Emerging Markets, UBS Investment Bank.
The focus is to look at companies that have the potential to grow significant cash flows over the medium to long-term, say 5-10 years, says Jeff Chowdhry, Senior Portfolio Manager, LGM Investments.
Talking about her expectations from the Union Budget 2017 in India, Katalin Gingold, Head of Equity Research, Cartica Capital hopes that the government would resist making it a populous Budget and continue it path of fiscal consolidation.
Mark Matthews of Bank Julius Baer & Co said despite the geopolitical tensions in India, the house is still bullish on the country as it has been since the election of Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister.
The market is still pricing in a 30 percent possibility of a hike in September. So, the house does not entirely rule out a September rate hike by Fed, said Ian Hui, JP Morgan AMC.
Global market experts believe although there are definite chances of a rate hike before 2016 ends, it would not rattle the emerging market space. However, short-term there could be some hurdle for the emerging markets (EMs).
From a global perspective, Jan Dehn, Head-Research, Ashmore Investment Management thinks the deeply entrenched negative sentiment about the US economy is driving sentiment at the moment