The volatility index serves as a crucial indicator of market stability, and a higher volatility in equity markets clearly indicates instability at the present juncture. The war in Middle East has been very tricky as it continues to escalate, said Naveen Kulkarni of Axis Securities PMS.
Strait of Hormuz blockage might not last beyond month of March 2026 as blockage impact almost every Asian country and extended blockage might warrant a direct military participation from multiple players, said Karan Aggarwal.
With multiple commodities moving together right now, the cumulative inflation impulse could be larger than the headline crude number alone implies, said LGT's Chakri Lokapriya.
Sustained high oil prices not only fuels inflation but pressures the rupee, bond yields, and equity sentiment. Markets hate uncertainty; volatility rises as investors recalibrate risks in response to events, said Nilesh Shah of Kotak Mahindra AMC.
Nimesh Chandan remains positive on domestic-oriented sectors, as they are better insulated from global uncertainties.
The resolution of the Hormuz issue will definitely be a positive signal for the markets. But without resolution of the ongoing war it does not signal full market optimism, said Vikas Gupta.
FY27 presents a clearer runway for earnings improvement with valuations no longer stretched and interest rates easing, the earnings cycle appears poised for gradual acceleration This year should be better than last calendar year gone by, said Carnelian’s Swati Khemani.
LNG price spikes also merit attention — city gas distribution companies and fertiliser manufacturers with spot LNG exposure could see meaningful input cost pressure if the disruption persists into Q4, said Valtrust's Rahul Bhutoria.
Though overall expectations are continued improvement in earnings growth across sectors in Q4FY26, key thing is to be watched out is the impact both direct and indirect due to the War, said Spark's Deepan Kapadia.
The current crisis will provide a tactical window to build exposure in quality counters with secular earnings predictability and margin of safety. One must take a constructive view from here on Indian equities, said Pradeep Gupta, Executive Director and Head of Investments – India at Lighthouse Canton
Bhautik Ambani of Alpha Grep says this is no longer routine geopolitical noise. It’s a serious escalation, and for India the issue is very simple — oil.
Geopolitical conflicts tend to evolve in unexpected ways, particularly when multiple stakeholders are involved and strategic interests overlap, said Rohit Sarin of Client Associates.
The key monitorable remains crude. If oil stabilizes, broader markets should absorb the geopolitical noise relatively quickly, said Divam Sharma.
FII flows will be vulnerable to these developments like geopolitical tensions, which means EMs markets could see further pressure in short term, said Ankur Jhaveri of JM Financial.
There can be delays in private capex as capex expansion depends on many factors such as demand uncertainty due to tariffs, and raw materials prices fluctuations, said Alpha Capital’s Pankaj Kumar.
Bay Capital's Nikunj Doshi believes that current phase of market provides opportunities for identifying long-term investments. USD and Gold are considered best hedges against global volatility and will continue to remain strong as long as geopolitical tensions remain high.
Overall, outlook remains negative for the next 12–18 months, given the lack of visibility on any sustainable near-term catalysts, said Nitin Bhasin of Ambit.
Markets are like a long Bollywood saga—twists, turns, but the hero (fundamentals) eventually wins. Stay invested smartly, avoid noise, focus on adaptability, Nilesh Shah advised.
Sachin Bajaj of Axis Max Life Insurance advised a cautious approach given the volatile geopolitical environment and its subsequent impact on various asset classes, including currency, equity flows, and commodities.
Anil Rego remains constructive on the lending cycle heading into FY27. Recent data indicating 14% growth in the second fortnight of January suggests that credit momentum remains healthy despite macro volatility.
According to Shailendra Kumar, the court ruling does not put uncertainty to rest; rather, it is likely to create a new layer of uncertainty in the near term.
A prolonged conflict between the US and Iran will keep the oil prices high, in turn raising India’s energy spending and feeding into inflation, says Lotusdew’s Prachi Deuskar.
Rahul Bhuskute of Bharti AXA Life Insurance believes the market has largely priced in current information regarding the US trade deal. Investors are now focused on the formal signing.
Axis MF's Shreyash Devalkar expects Nifty 50 earnings to rebound meaningfully with mid-teen growth in FY27 and FY28.
AI is transforming the industry’s focus rather than reducing its relevance, says Rajesh Iyer of LGT.