Capital Economics

Sticking to the medium-term target is needed to keep the public debt ratio sustainable, says Shilan Shah, Senior India Economist at Capital Economics, says

Why quick China reopening may not necessarily be good for stocks, bonds

The recent weakness of China’s economy has helped reduce global inflation, underpinning the rallies in global bonds and equities.

India's monetary tightening cycle nears end as economy slows down: Societe Generale

The RBI’s rate-setting panel is due to meet December 5 to December 7 where it is widely expected to raise policy rates again

EM central banks may start rate cuts mid-2023 as inflation cools off

EM central banks have waited around four months on average between ending their hiking cycle and delivering their first rate cut, Capital Economics said

Sliding rupee to have limited macro fallout: Capital Economics

The research house, however, expects the rupee to continue depreciating to around 85 to a dollar by the middle of 2023

RBI to revert to baby steps approach to monetary tightening

India’s Monetary Policy Committee has raised the key policy repo rate by 190 basis points since early May as it shifted focus to inflation from growth.

Deglobalisation unlikely, economy to coalesce into two blocs centred on US, China

As long as a crisis is avoided and the fracturing results only in a partial roll back of prior decades of integration, economies and financial markets will adapt gradually to the new environment, says chief economist of Capital Economics

Inflation shifts investor attention away from China slowdown, says economist

After a decades-long run of giddying expansion, a structural slowdown is now in full train

Why India’s CBDC may struggle for relevance

India is aiming to launch the central bank digital currency in this financial year but in a country where digital payments are thriving and are cheap, a CBDC is likely to face indifferent consumers

Policy outlook, not bond inclusion, key for Indian yields: Capital Economics

The 10-year benchmark India bond yield last week fell to its lowest level in a month following a media report that JPMorgan was in talks with major investors to include India in its GBI-EM Global Diversified Index.

India on course to becoming third largest economy by 2030, says Capital Economics

India recently overtook the UK to become the fifth-largest economy at market exchange rates.

Rupee may strengthen to 70 to a dollar by 2030, says Capital Economics

Decent relative productivity growth and improvement in commodity terms of trade will drive an appreciation in the equilibrium real exchange rate against the dollar, says the research house

RBI to hike by another 100 basis points by early 2023: Capital Economics

The house remains comfortable with its view that the repo rate will rise to 6.40% by early 2023 and expects another 50-basis-point hike at the next meeting in late September. The RBI will revert to 25-basis-point hikes after that once inflation has peaked.

Likely rise in February inflation may push RBI to act: Report

According to a report by Capital Economics, consumer price inflation dropped in January to 3.2 percennt from 3.4 percennt in December, but is likely to rise in February.

Iron ore to be at $50 per tonne by year end: Caroline Bain

Caroline Bain, Senior Commodities Economist at Capital Economics speaks to Manisha Gupta of CNBC-TV18 about the current trends in base metal commodities.

China forex reserves fall for 6th mnth in Dec, near $3 trillion

China's foreign exchange reserves fell to near six-year lows in December, but held just above the critical USD3 trillion level, as authorities stepped in to support the weakening yuan ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration.

If OPEC is a no-show, crude could slip below $40/bl: Capital Eco

Thomas Pugh of Capital Economics told CNBC-TV18 that the OPEC is likely to come out with a face saving type of deal for around 6 months instead of agreeing to individual country ideas.

Crude oil prices not expected to sustain higher: Thomas Pugh

Some deal is better than no deal says Thomas Pugh of Capital Economics commenting on the agreement reached at the Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries (OPECs) Algiers meeting to cut oil output.

Don't see big slide in oil prices: Capital Economics

Watch the interview of Thomas Pugh, Commodities Economist, Capital Economics with Manisha Gupta on CNBC-TV18, in which he shared his reading and outlook on crude prices.

Storm clouds gather over Raghuram Rajan at RBI policy meeting

"With inflation above target and likely to rise in the near-term, it seems more likely now that efforts to loosen policy have run their course," Shilan Shah, an economist at Capital Economics, said in a note last week.

Hopes rise over RBI's lending-boosting efforts

Governor Raghuram Rajan cut the marginal standing facility rate, i.e. the amount banks can borrow from the RBI for emergencies, by 75 basis points and said he will ensure liquidity conditions are closer to neutral instead of the previous standard, a 1 percent deficit of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL).

Yield on 10-year Japan government bond hits zero for first time

The yield on the 10-year Japan government bond (JGB) recovered to 0.015 percent after touching zero on Tuesday. The fall came on the heels of a global stock market sell-off overnight that likely spurred safe haven flows back into Japan. Bond prices move inversely to yields.

Consumer cos struggle to tap aspirational middle-class

"Over the past decade, India's consumer market has generated plenty of interest among investors, most notably the size of the population, prospects for rapid growth in real incomes and better provision of financial services," Shilan Shah, an India economist for Capital Economics, said in a recent note.