Fully accessible route bonds — those offered to global investors without limits — will fall short of an initial $25-30 billion passive flow that was estimated to come in after their inclusion to the JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets, said a note.
Foreigners’ appetite for local debt waned after Donald Trump’s election win stoked speculation of higher US inflation and pushed up the dollar, given the President-elect’s plans to impose tariffs around the globe.
Overseas investors sold Rs 1,680 crore ($200 million) of so-called Fully Accessible Route bonds last week, according to Clearing Corporation of India data.
Indian bonds will be included in the $4.7 trillion-valued FTSE's EM Global Index after being on the watch list for the last three years.
The domestic currency's depreciation has been less than what has been seen for competing currencies like the Vietnamese dong and Indonesian rupiah, tempering the country's competitiveness in overseas markets.
The currency’s strong fundamentals, a narrowing current account deficit, and growing expectations on inflows around India’s inclusion into a global bond index are adding to its appeal, said Nathan Venkat Swami, head of foreign exchange trading in Asia Pacific.
If approved, inclusion could attract $5 billion from both passive and active investors by September or October, ET report added.
Economists believe that the demand-supply mismatch in government securities market post inclusion will be addressed by the RBI by conducting Open Market Operation (OMO) sales.
JP Morgan has decided to include India in its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) index. The inclusion is slated to commence from June 28, 2024, and will extend for over 10 months with 1 per cent increments on the index weighting, as the country is expected to reach the maximum weighting of 10 per cent as per JP Morgan. What does this mean? What are implications for India? Why it is being done now? We seek answers from Sanjeev Sanyal, Member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India
The addition of bonds in the global index is expected to attract foreign fund inflows and the 10-year benchmark bond yield may trade in a range of 6.50-6.80 percent by the end of FY25.
There is not much evidence to suggest that inclusion in bond indices has a major impact on local financial markets, the economist said.
The buzz around India’s inclusion in the global bond index is growing stronger. Talks of India's inclusion have picked up steam after Goldman Sachs published a note recently, saying it expects India to be included in JPMorgan's Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets in 2023. If this happens, India will be among the last of the large Emerging Markets to be included in the global bond indices. But why is an inclusion in the global bond indices so important? Watch this video to know more.