Victory of Taliban extremely tragic for the region, says top Pakistani expert Ayesha Siddiqa

Militants waving a Taliban flag on the back of a pickup truck drive past a crowded street at Pashtunistan Square area in Jalalabad, Afghanistan. (Image: AP)

The victory of the Taliban in Afghanistan is extremely tragic for the region, says Ayesha Siddiqa, well known Pakistani political scientist and author.

"From Pakistan’s broader security perspective, the return of the Taliban is not good. However, from its military’s perspective, it does help to neutralise Indian influence in Afghanistan,” she told Moneycontrol.

"I know sections of the Pakistan military who believe that President Ashraf Ghani had given a long rope to India and would not act against Indian interests. Now with the Taliban there, Indian influence in Afghanistan is certainly going to be curtailed," said Siddiqa, who serves as research associate at the SOAS South Asia Institute, London.

From Pakistan’s broader security perspective, the return of the Taliban is not good. However, from its military’s perspective, it does help to neutralise Indian influence in Afghanistan

The mood after the Taliban return is this: `if we can knock out two superpowers, the USSR and the USA from Afghanistan, what is India’, she points out.

Describing what she called `Pakistan’s perceived gains’, as opposed to real gains, Islamabad’s main concern remains the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which the country’s intelligence sources believe has links with India, and in turn, with the outgoing Afghan government intelligence.

However, for Pakistan, its increased influence in Afghanistan does represent the emergence of a larger Islamic crescent of power, one that begins in Turkey and includes the Middle East and Central Asia. It will certainly act as a force multiplier for Islamabad to increase its bargaining power in Central Asia.

The fact is that even while there are not going to be too many investors in Afghanistan, any power interested in the region, including China and Russia, would need Pakistan’s help.

Says Siddiqa: "The situation is like this. Modi’s Right wing is going to be pitted against an Islamic Right wing. Therein lies the seeds of instability.”

What about Indian investments in Afghanistan’s infrastructure, New Delhi’s role as a soft power?  "Forget about investments in Afghanistan. By not negotiating with the Taliban, India has left it too late. Here you have an Islamic Right wing, which is not going to be too impressed with what the Hindu Right wing is doing under Modi in India,” explains Siddiqa, one of the foremost global experts on Pakistan’s strategic culture and its military.

The situation is like this. Modi’s Right wing is going to be pitted against an Islamic Right wing. Therein lies the seeds of instability

The other issue is the Quad, which is a loose arrangement at this stage. India may be attempting to thwart China, which has the potential to make inroads in Afghanistan after America’s departure, she points out.

In her view, though, Beijing doesn’t look too keen about jumping into the Afghanistan fray, even the Afghans realise that China has greater financial resources to offset India’s $3 billion investment in Afghanistan spent since 2002, particularly in the post-pandemic period when the Indian economy is struggling.

My friend, who is a Right Wing, says that the US ought to have engaged with Iran, using that route to pull out of Afghanistan, instead of taking the route that they have, explains Siddiqa.

"Likewise, I believe that India should have engaged with China in the region, instead of putting all its eggs in the American basket. China is a regional power, and it would make sense to handhold them instead of looking to the West, which has suddenly cleared out of Afghanistan leaving everyone to fend for themselves,” says Siddiqa.

The Pakistani expert predicts that little insurgencies – like Kashmir – could come up in India, with the kind of success that the Taliban and other groups have experienced. If true, for India, that should be considered a grim warning.