UP Election Results 2022: How Mayawati’s BSP was decimated

BSP Chief Mayawati (File Photo)

The most shocking aspect of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections was the annihilation of four-time chief minister Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party. The party, which once was the frontrunner in elections, now has only one representative in the 403-member state assembly – not quite conforming to Mayawati’s pre-poll claims about springing a surprise.

The BSP’s vote share, according to the Election Commission of India, has reduced to 12.88 percent. That’s a little over the 11.12 percent share it secured in 1993, its poorest performance since its inception in 1984 by Kanshiram, Mayawati’s mentor. The party contested all 403 seats this time.

READ: UP Election Results 2022 | How BJP's victory has repeated history after 37 years

In 2007, when the party came to power winning 206 of the 403 seats, it had polled 30.43 percent of the votes. Five years later, when the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party won the elections, the BSP’s seat count was reduced to 80 with a 26 percent vote share.

In 2017, when the BJP stormed to power by winning 312 seats, the BSP was reduced to 19 seats, although it got 22.33 percent of the votes.

The wipe-out of the BSP in this election – even in terms of vote share – contradicts the perception that the party’s 20 percent vote share in UP remains intact with or without campaigning by Mayawati.

The only seat the BSP won this time was Rasara in Ballia district, where Uma Shankar Singh defeated Mahendra of the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party by over 6,500 votes. Singh also won from the seat in 2012 and 2017.

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The BJP scripted an unprecedented victory by winning a second term bagging 273 seats with its alliance partners. The Samajwadi Party and its alliance partners got 125 seats.

Missing from campaign

Mayawati, popularly known as behenji, said the results were a lesson.

“The poll results are contrary to BSP’s expectations. We should not be discouraged by it. Instead, we should learn from it, introspect and carry forward our party movement and come back to power,” she said as the results came out on March 10.

Her absence from the poll campaign had sparked speculation and accusations of a tacit understanding with the BJP, perhaps to save herself from prosecution in corruption and disproportionate-asset cases. Once known for reaching out to voters, Mayawati held about 20 rallies this time.

Also, read | Where is Mayawati? BSP leader’s absence from UP poll campaign sparks speculation

What added to the speculation was home minister Amit Shah’s unusual praise for Mayawati in an interview with News18 ahead of the fourth round of the seven-phased UP election. Shah’s praise was acknowledged by Mayawati.

Political observers said Shah’s public recognition of BSP was a calculated move to split the bipolar BJP-SP fight in UP into a multipolar one to the benefit of the ruling party. Many said the praise was aimed at reaching out to BSP voters by showing BJP’s respect for Mayawati.

This assumed significance, especially during the last two phases of the polls covering 111 seats in eastern UP, where Dalits and Muslims form a sizeable portion of the population. Many observers said Mayawati’s choice of candidates, many of them Muslims, against the SP’s contestants may also have been a step towards weakening the SP.

Jatav deserters

Jatavs, who backed Mayawati during her politically turbulent years, seem to have deserted the BSP and shifted towards the BJP, political analysts said.

“With this vote percentage, this is a clear sign that the Jatavs are deserting the BSP. The BSP has not been doing well and is on the decline as it is facing an existential crisis. However, I would not write off the party so soon,” political analyst Sudha Pai told the Print.

Jatavs, a sub-caste to which Mayawati belongs, hold a 14 percent share in the Scheduled Caste category.

A former teacher, Mayawati, first became chief minister of UP in June 1995. Subsequently, she became chief minister twice in alliance governments. In 2007, she became chief minister again after the BSP secured a majority.

“Her sharp 10 percent drop in votes from the last elections came from desertions from the Jatav camp,” Ajoy Bose, Mayawati’s biographer wrote in the Quint. “The younger, more radicalised sections voted for the SP to defeat the BJP and an even larger poorer segment of the sub-caste, which was lured by Yogi Adityanath government’s welfare sops like free ration, chose the BJP.”

The decimation in 2022 was final confirmation that the accelerating decline of Mayawati’s support base over the past decade has now brought her to a point of no return, Bose added.