G20 Summit in Delhi: Putin’s absence at summit may save India from embarrassing situations

Putin’s presence in New Delhi could have heightened the division in the G20.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the G20 summit in New Delhi on September 9 and 10. He spoke about his inability to be present during a telephone conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The ostensible reason is the war in Ukraine, which has reached a critical stage and may intensify in the coming days.

India currently has the presidency of the G20 and Modi is its president. The presidency rotates in alphabetical order among member-countries.

The Russian president’s absence will certainly be noticed by other leaders, but it may save India from possibly embarrassing situations. The Ukraine war has sharply divided the group, with the US and other western countries blaming Putin for the invasion, and other members, including India, refusing to criticise the Russian president.

The West has also accused Putin of having engineered Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mysterious death in a plane crash. Although there is no evidence to support the claim, it gives the western countries another plank to criticise him.

Russia will be represented by foreign minister Sergey Lavrov at the summit, while Putin will address the gathering on video. Lavrov is a seasoned diplomat capable of dealing with the west’s hostile campaign against Russia.

Avoiding summits
Since the Ukraine war began in February 2022, Putin has generally avoided international summits. He attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting in Uzbekistan in September, but stayed away from the G20 summit in Bali in December last year.

Putin’s presence in New Delhi could have heightened the division in the G20. The western bloc could have looked for opportunities to humiliate Putin, which would have been embarrassing for India.

The Russian president’s presence could have also created a tense situation or led to an acrimonious debate, which would deal irreparable damage to the G20 and split the group. Such a development under India’s presidency would have been a major embarrassment for the host country.

Putin avoided last week’s BRICS summit, which has Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, in Johannesburg. The reason was a pending arrest warrant against him for war crimes in Ukraine by the International Criminal Court. Putin did not want to embarrass South Africa, a member of the ICC, by his presence at the summit.

Divided house
The Group of Twenty (G20) has the 19 wealthiest economies and the European Union as members. It accounts for 85 percent of global economic output and represents two-thirds of the world’s population.

But the Ukraine war has sharply divided the group. A series of meetings in the run-up to the summit has reflected that. During the G20 foreign ministers meeting, the differences divided the members to such an extent that a joint statement could not be adopted at the end of the discussions.

The Group of Seven countries, an important component of the G20, had insisted on reflecting their consensus and support for Ukraine during earlier meetings. They would also like to do so at the forthcoming summit.
India has been trying to highlight the plight of the Global South due to the war and build a consensus on it. The Global South comprises the developing and poor countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America.

Due to rising debt and disruption in supplies of food, fuel and other essential commodities, the Global South has faced the most difficult situation created by the war in Ukraine. India has invited many countries of the Global South for the New Delhi G20 summit.

It could even end with the inclusion of the African Union as a permanent member of the G20, as India has proposed.

Significantly, most Global South countries have maintained their neutrality on the Ukraine war and have refused to condemn Russia despite the relentless campaign by the US and European countries to do so.

The concern remains whether the G20 members will be able to set aside their differences on the Ukraine war by stressing on other development issues and the plight of the developing world to come out with a joint statement at the end of the summit. If that happens, it would certainly be a huge feather in India’s cap.