Opposition Unity: Can Nitish Kumar become JP 2.0?

As Nitish Kumar navigates the political landscape, his primary hurdle will be persuading the various parties and their leaders to prioritise a shared agenda over their individual ambitions. (File image)

Is a Mahagathbandhan of India's opposition parties possible for the general elections of 2024? Nitish Kumar, the Chief Minister of Bihar and leader of the Janata Dal (United), certainly seems to think so, having taken the lead in initiating negotiations for a grand alliance. His meetings this week with Mamata Banerjee and Akhilesh Yadav, and earlier with Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge and senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, suggest something big is in the offing.

If he does manage the impossible, it could become a feat reminiscent of one of the most illustrious leaders Bihar has produced, Jayaprakash Narayan (JP), who brought a disparate opposition together during the Emergency to dethrone Indira Gandhi.

It seems that Congress has visualised Nitish playing the crucial role of sheet anchor to unite parties with diverse ideologies. If so, this is undeniably a promising beginning. Nitish Kumar is a politician with the necessary competence and experience and enjoys acceptance from various political factions. With nearly 18 years of experience running Bihar, he has proven himself to be a resilient politician and able administrator.

Why Nitish Matters

In the world of politics, Nitish Kumar could now be emerging as a formidable force. If he can demonstrate strategic moves and leadership skills, it can easily earn him the title of “JP 2.0” for opposition unity. There is bitterness and divisions among the opposition parties right now. The inability of Congress or any of its leaders to bring together opposition parties, despite being the largest opposition party, highlights Nitish’s salience.

The strategic move of 2015 where Nitish formed a mahagathbandhan with his long-time rival Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar, resulting in a significant victory over Narendra Modi, raised Nitish’s profile in the opposition spectrum. By dumping BJP again in 2022 and heading a coalition government in Bihar, consisting of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Congress, and the Left parties, Nitish has revived his stock in the opposition. Moreover, Bihar’s position as the second most populous state in the Hindi heartland gives Nitish clout the others lack.

The BJP has been relentlessly targeting opposition parties on three critical fronts: dynastic politics, corruption, and ideology. But Nitish isn’t a dynast, nor has he been accused of promoting his relatives, nor has he or his party have faced any grave corruption charges thus far. But the political headwinds against him are getting stronger in Bihar, which explains his eagerness to shift to a national role.

Nitish Kumar, for all his faults like political opportunism, has stayed true to some core principles. Even when he was in an alliance with the BJP, Nitish advocated secularism and consistently disapproved of divisive politics like cow vigilantism, Citizenship Amendment Act and majoritarianism. He is also in the middle of refurbishing his OBC credentials, courtesy in the Bihar caste census. Since PM Modi himself belongs to the OBC community, and the BJP has been heavily relying on OBC support since its triumph in 2014, Nitish could be well positioned to lead the counteroffensive.

Nitish's Mahagatbandhan Model

Following his meeting with Congress leaders, Nitish Kumar had an important discussion with AAP supremo and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal. Kejriwal told the press he was on board for opposition unity. According to AAP leaders, Nitish assured Kejriwal that he would ensure that any political party joining this “coalition” would have an equal opportunity to voice their opinions.

The AAP sources affirmed that Kejriwal and Nitish have agreed on issues like whether the alliance should concentrate more on some fundamental goals that all opposition parties share. They revealed that Nitish told Kejriwal that give and take was required from both AAP and Congress if there is to be a coalition. Subsequently, Congress president Kharge called Kejriwal and spoke with him over the phone.

It appears that Nitish is advocating that the opposition alliance take decisions to concentrate on shared causes rather than highlight roles for individual leaders, while also giving all stakeholders an equal voice in the decision-making process.

Ambition Management

Nitish will not have an easy time forging the alliance. There’s the delicate task of managing aspirations of various opposition political factions. To successfully bring Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee on board, it will be necessary to extinguish the flames of animosity between Banerjee, the Left, and the Congress. It will be just as challenging to bring K Chandrashekar Rao into the proposed formation, due to his strained relationship with Congress and the impending Telangana election.

Kumar intends to rope in even the YSRCP and Biju Janta Dal which have been steadfastly “neutral” since 2014. There are concerns regarding the willingness of these two parties to join an opposition alliance. For that matter even Kejriwal and Congress have a history, given the AAP undermining the Congress recently in Gujarat.

Will Congress Make Concessions?

As Nitish Kumar navigates the political landscape, his primary hurdle will be persuading the various parties and their leaders to prioritise a shared agenda over their individual ambitions. The significance of being part of a mahagathbandhan with a central focus and without diverging opinions has to be drilled into the leaders.

Defining the role of the Congress within this coalition and in mounting an effective challenge to BJP is another challenge for Nitish.  Congress will be pushed to demonstrate its commitment to forming a mahagathbandan through sharing seats in its strongholds with regional players. Will Congress cede seats to opposition parties in MP, Rajasthan or Telangana?

Ultimately, Nitish Kumar's success hinges on two crucial factors: Genuine commitment of Congress and the willingness of regional parties to strike a balance between their national aspirations and regional concerns. Finally, will they all speak in one voice?

Sayantan Ghosh is a Columnist and Doctoral Research Scholar in Media & Politics. He tweets @sayantan_gh. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.