Opinion | Why phase-I of Chhattisgarh polls is important for BJP, Congress and third front

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Today, 18 constituencies in the Maoist-affected Bastar division and Rajnandgaon district in Chhattisgarh go to the polls.

Seventy-two seats in the 91-member Assembly are scheduled for November 20 in the two-phase polls in the state.

Incumbent Chief Minister Raman Singh of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is vying for a fourth term in a tight contest with the Congress. The Ajit Jogi-led third front -- with Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Communist Party of India (CPI) as constituents -- is the wildcard.

The BJP’s chances in Chhattisgarh got a tremendous boost with the emergence of a third-front in a state that has so far witnessed a bipolar contest and wafer-thin margins of victory. Ajit Jogi floated the Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) in 2016 after his son Amit Jogi was expelled from the Congress after being caught on tape for fixing the Antagarh by-poll in cahoots with the BJP.

The first phase going to polls under the shadow of Naxal violence will mostly see a direct contest between the Congress and BJP -- apart from the Konta seat in Sukma, where the CPI has some degree of influence.

In 2013, the Congress won 12 out of these 18 with the BJP winning in the remaining four. If at all the Congress hopes to remain in contention for the second and decisive phase, it will have to hold on to these seats if not wrest a few more from the BJP in this tribal-dominated area.

On the other hand, the BJP will look to wrest some of the seats it lost to the Congress in 2013.

In this phase, the third front is contesting from all 18 seats. While the BSP and the JCC are contesting from eight seats each, the CPI has two seats -- Dantewada is one of the two. The CPI won from Dantewada way back in 1993, when the constituency came under undivided Madhya Pradesh.

The Congress has retained nine of its 12 MLAs from the previous assembly while the BJP has retained five out of their six MLAs in these seats. The most high-profile contest in this phase is in the Rajnandgaon seat between Chief Minister Raman Singh and Karuna Shukla of the Congress. Shukla, late Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s niece, was with the BJP till 2013 before she switched over. Despite corruption allegations against many ministers and his own son’s name appearing in the Panama Papers, Singh largely remains a popular figure in his home state.

‘Chawal Baba’ (as Singh is popularly known here) was once known for his rice and pulses scheme but has now graduated to more sophisticated freebies such as smartphones. Singh sprang a major surprise in the election year when he announced that the government would hand out mobile phones to every rural household and college-going student. More than five million -- out of an estimated 25 million people in the state -- benefitted from the scheme. It was justified on account of the low mobile phone penetration in the state (29 percent) citing an ICRIER study linking increased mobile penetration to growth. Singh has also been giving away land pattas to woo other vote-banks in an attempt to buck anti-incumbency.

As for the Congress, agriculture distress is among its major planks and it has promised to waive off farm loans if it was to come to power. Unemployment, corruption, poor healthcare and infrastructure are the other prominent issues.

With Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) chief Bhupesh Baghel losing the confidence of Congress President Rahul Gandhi following the leak of an audio where he allegedly offered tickets for money, the leadership race is also wide open in the party in case it springs a surprise. Leader of Opposition and erstwhile royal TS Singh Deo, Congress Working Committee (CWC) member Tamradhwaj Sahu, chief whip Satyanarayan Sharma, former Union ministers Charan Das Mahant and tribal leader Arvind Netam are likely to be among the contenders.

The BJP managed to poach Congress working president Ram Dayal Uike on the eve of the polls but according to one Congress insider, he was a “Jogi acolyte”. Jogi’s nuisance value in the polls notwithstanding, he had become a liability for the Congress during its prolonged spell out of power in Chhattisgarh. Congress leaders have been accusing Ajit Jogi and his third front of being propped up by the BJP to cut into the Congress votes.

The third front could cut both ways even affecting the BJP’s prospects in some seats as it holds nine out of the 10 SC reserved constituencies in the state where the BSP is expected to be a decisive factor.

It will be a fascinating election as the third axis in the traditionally bipolar state may end up determining the winning horse.