Modi will head for Jo’burg to try and shape a new BRICS

BRICS Flags

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be leaving for South Africa’s Johannesburg to participate in the BRICS summit to be held there between August 22 to 24. The bloc is a grouping of five emerging economies — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

There will also be a number of bilateral meetings between Modi and other leaders on the sidelines of the summit. But it is not clear yet who he will meet.

The global situation

The summit is taking place at a time when the majority of countries in the developing world are facing a serious crisis due to disruption in the supply of food, fuel, and other essential commodities.

While measures to mitigate the suffering of the developing countries will be a major focus of the discussions, the expansion of the BRICS is another important issue on the agenda.

The BRICS leaders are meeting under the shadow of the ongoing Ukraine war.

The conflict has intensified in recent days as the United States-led NATO alliance has armed Ukraine with more sophisticated weapons to push back the Russian troops that invaded the country in February 2022.

The summit also coincides with China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region, and rising fear that BRICS is fast turning into a China-dominated outfit.

Modi ends uncertainty

Ending days of uncertainty, Modi announced his decision to attend the summit after a telephone conversation with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in early August. “President Ramaphosa invited the Prime Minister for the BRICS summit and briefed him on the preparations,” an official statement said, adding that the “PM accepted the invitation and conveyed that he looked forward to Johannesburg.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to attend the summit virtually.

The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant against Putin for his alleged role in forcibly deporting Ukrainian children. South Africa is a signatory to the ICC charter and is obliged to arrest Putin if he visits the country. The issue led to a debate in South Africa, and to save it any embarrassment, and also to avoid getting arrested, Putin decided to participate in the summit virtually.

BRICS expansion

China is keen to expand BRICS and bring in Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, which are both considered close to it. But India and Brazil think countries should be made an observer or a partner country first, before they graduate to becoming full members. Moreover, they feel that a criterion for BRICS membership should be agreed upon, and countries like Argentina and Nigeria should be given priority for a more balanced representation of Latin America and Africa, besides Asia.

They are also reluctant to turn the BRICS into an anti-US and anti-European Union platform as the prevailing challenges in the world need active support from the rich countries.

Relevance of BRICS

The bloc was formed in 2009-2010 after Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, Jim O’Neill, invented the term to combine the four large emerging economies of the time — Brazil, Russia, India and China. (South Africa joined in 2011).

The BRICS represented a quarter of the global GDP and 42 percent of the world’s population.

According to Reuters, in the first decade (2002-2011) China’s economy grew by 176 percent, India’s by 110 percent, Russia’s by 60 percent, and Brazil’s by 47 percent. But in subsequent years Russia, Brazil, and South Africa have all struggled economically. In the decade from 2012-2022, Russia’s output grew by 13 percent, Brazil’s by 7 percent, and South Africa’s 12 percent, added Reuters.

However, China and India continued to move forward, albeit at a slower rate, growing at 97 and 83 percent, respectively.

Experts say China’s GDP of $19 trillion this year will be 50 times that of South Africa. India, the fifth largest economy in the world and the second largest after China in BRICS, has a GDP of about $ 3.6 trillion. Experts argue that the BRICS is now seriously lopsided and heavily titled in China’s favour.

Besides, achievements of the bloc have been questioned by western experts. For instance, the New Development Bank BRICS created in 2015 has approved projects worth only $33 billion. In contrast, the World Bank committed $104 billion in 2022 alone.

Moreover, the group has failed to agree on a single currency. Despite China’s efforts to make the yuan the acceptable currency for buying Russian oil, the move has raised serious concerns in India.

Some experts suggest that BRICS should be dismantled and India shoul take the initiative of bringing together other emerging economies in the world, which are also democracies.

But despite the weakness that has crept into the bloc, BRICS allows India to maintain its strategic autonomy.

It also helps the Indian leadership drive a better bargain with the US-led Western countries as it continues to expand its options for the future.