Karnataka political slugfest: Dust settles, but questions remain over fate of Cong-JD(S) tie-up, rebel MLAs

The Indian National Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) government in Karnataka collapsed on July 23. The ruling coalition lost the vote of confidence moved by Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy.

The coalition had the support of 99 Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) against 105 MLAs of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Shortly after the floor test proceedings concluded, Kumaraswamy submitted his resignation to Governor Vajubhai Vala.

The BJP has said it would stake claim to form the government. However, it is unclear when the party’s delegation would meet Governor Vala.

Party leaders have said key decisions regarding government formation will be taken by the parliamentary board. This would include a decision on who get the state’s top executive office. It is widely believed that BS Yeddyurappa would become the chief minister for a fourth term.

Reports suggest that he could meet the Governor on July 24. This will be followed by the Legislative Party meeting. Yeddyurappa could also meet BJP’s senior leadership in New Delhi.

Only the chief minister will be sworn-in initially. The cabinet ministers will take oath later, perhaps next week.

While the BJP is set to form the government, concerns remain about political stability in the state. The BJP has 105 MLAs in the Assembly. The party could be possibly be supported by two Independent MLAs. The margin in the tallies of the two sides remains slim.

The state has a history of political instability. It has seen at least six President’s Rule in the past and collapse of multiple governments. In fact, only three chief ministers of the state have ever completed a term in office.

During the trust vote debate, Congress and JD(S) leaders warned that the BJP government could meet a similar fate. For the BJP, concerns remain about a possible internal rift. Many MLAs could be upset over the possible induction of rebels, or losing out on a ministerial berth.

It is unclear as to what will happen to the rebelling MLAs of the Congress and the JD(S). Reports suggest that they will stay in Mumbai until a BJP chief minister is sworn in.

They had sought four weeks to appear in front of the Speaker regarding their resignation. The Speaker has so far neither acted on their resignations, nor on their parties’ pleas to disqualify them.

Reports suggest that the BJP is expected to accommodate at least five of these rebel MLAs in the Cabinet.

In either scenario, the rebels will have to get re-elected to the Assembly through bypolls. While they are allowed to contest election under the anti-defection code, they will not be able to take charge as ministers until they get re-elected.

The new government will be stable until the bypolls are completed. However, in an event where the Congress and the JD(S) win a significant number of seats, the government could become unstable again.

However, if the BJP wins a significant number of those bypoll seats, the government could emerge much stronger.

The electoral performance of the Congress-JD(S) alliance in the 2019 Lok Sabha election was disastrous. This was seen by many as a stamp of disapproval of the coalition. With their government now fallen, it remains unclear if the alliance will continue.

Remember, the Congress and the JD(S) are arch rivals in the Old Mysore region where the BJP used to be a distant third.