Haryana Assembly Election: Jat votes, economic slowdown among key factors that may impact polls

The state of Haryana is heading for polls to elect a fresh Legislative Assembly. Elections will be held for all of the 90 seats in the Vidhan Sabha.

The tenure of the sitting Assembly is scheduled to end on November 2.

Over 1.8 crore people in Haryana are eligible to vote. The Election Commission (EC) is setting up 19,425 polling stations across the state.

Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is hoping to retain power in the northern state after completion of its full five year term. This is the first BJP government in the state.

BJP is being challenged by a fractured Opposition comprising the Indian National Congress, Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP). INLD and JJP are led by Om Prakash Chautala and Dushyant Chautala, respectively.

There are several other smaller parties in fray such as Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). BJP’s ally in Punjab – the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) – has joined hands with the INLD in Haryana.

Also read: Congress infighting, Khattar's performance and Jat votes - all you need to know about the 2019 Haryana polls

Here are the key factors that are likely to impact the polls:

Factionalism in Congress: In the run-up to the elections, factionalism and infighting in Haryana Congress became known to all when Bhupinder Hooda held a rally in Rohtak. The rally was a signal to Congress’ high command that Hooda could leave the party if he was not given charge of the state unit. This was amid Hooda’s dispute with then state unit chief Ashok Tanwar.

On September 4, Congress Interim President Sonia Gandhi appointed Rajya Sabha Member of Parliament (MP) Kumari Selja as Haryana Pradesh Congress Committee (HPCC)’s chief. Hooda was made the Congress Legislative Party leader in the state and was appointed as the Chairman of Congress' state Election Management Committee. This effectively side-lined Tanwar.

A month later, Tanwar resigned from the party’s primary membership, citing alleged irregularities in ticket distribution. This deep-rooted factionalism and defection of leaders to the BJP is expected to impact Congress’ prospects, political observers suggest.

Battle for the Jat votes: Jats make up around 27 percent of the state’s population. The community is highly influential in politics. So much so that five Haryana chief ministers have come from this community.

For decades, the Jat votes formed the core voter base of both the Congress and INLD. In fact, Bhupinder Hooda is Congress’ Jat face. The INLD banks on the Jats for electoral success.

However, Jats’ support for Congress and more so for the INLD has been eroding. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Hooda himself, and his son Deepender, lost from Sonepat and Rohtak, respectively. The two constituencies fall in the Jat heartland and were once considered Hooda bastions.

There are at least 23 Jat-dominated Assembly constituencies in the state – enough to make or break any party’s chances.

Having consolidated its non-Jat base, BJP has moved to capture these Jat-dominated seats. This is seen from the campaign pattern. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP National President Amit Shah, CM Khattar and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath are holding rallies in these areas extensively.

Split in opposition votes: This will be the first Assembly election for JJP. With the INLD having lost ground over years, JJP is hoping to capture that space. However, this could also lead to a split in the anti-BJP votes.

If that happens, BJP will be the direct beneficiary of such a split in opposition votes. This could be similar to how the Congress-NCP had benefitted from the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) seemingly having cut Shiv Sena’s vote share in the 2009 Assembly polls.

Also read: How split in INLD will bolster BJP in the Jat-dominated state

Economic slowdown, jobs and farmer distress: The election comes at a time when the country is witnessing a slowdown in the economy. The April to June quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth plummeted to a seven-year-low of 5 percent.

The slump was for the fifth straight quarter as consumer demand and private investment decelerated vis-à-vis the global environment.

To make matters worse, the unemployment data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in May confirmed the pre-Lok Sabha election leaked report’s claim of joblessness in 2017-18 being at a 45-year-high of 6.1 percent.

Agriculture and allied activities accounted for 17 percent of Haryana’s Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) in 2017-18.

Congress and the INLD have been taking on the Khattar government over farm distress and local governance issues. BJP has responded by projecting its strong central leadership.

BJP is playing the nationalism card, highlighting major decisions taken by the Central leadership such as abrogation of Article 370. Nationalism is key as a significant percentage of defence personnel come from Haryana.

All of these economic factors will be voters’ minds when they cast their ballots on October 21. Maharashtra will head for polling on the same day. Counting of votes in both states will happen on October 24.

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