DATA STORY: Modi sarkar’s popularity plunges, job creation remains biggest concern

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attends the 'Dialogue of Emerging Market and Developing Countries' on the sideline of the 2017 BRICS Summit in Xiamen, Fujian province,

The Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party’s popularity is steadily declining across regions and age bands, according to a  survey by Lokniti Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).

The Mood of The Nation survey was conducted on January 7 and January 20 by Lokniti CSDS for ABP News.

When asked which party they were likely to vote if snap polls are held now, 34 percent respondents said they would go with BJP, down from 39 percent in May 2017.

However, the number of respondents likely to vote for Congress has risen from 21 percent to 25 percent from May 2017.

Respondents’ chances of voting for BJP allies, Congress allies, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Left Parties has more or less remained the same between May 2017 and January this year.

National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s popularity has gone down significantly across regions of the country — West, Central, East and South India compared to May 2017.

BJP and its allies have seen eight percentage points decline in their popularity in west-central India and in the south. Congress’s popularity has risen in both these regions.

On all-India level, BJP has shred its popularity by five percent while Congress has gained by three percent. Congress has gained in villages and small towns at BJP’s expense.

While 51 percent respondents said they were satisfied with Modi government’s work, overall satisfaction with the Modi sarkar’s performance has declined as the number of people expressing satisfaction was 64 percent in May 2017.

Dissatisfaction with the Modi government has grown from 27 percent to 40 percent in eight months, the survey has found.

Respondents were asked as to what they felt about the Modi sarkar’s work and the parameters were - complete satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or complete dissatisfied.

People opting for ‘complete dissatisfaction’ with the government’s work were higher than people choosing ‘complete satisfaction’. Number of people saying they were ‘somewhat dissatisfied’ also nearly doubled from 12 percent to 23 percent, in eight months.

When it came to addressing farmer woes and agrarian crisis, both farmers and non-farmers unanimously responded that the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) had performed better than the NDA.

The BJP has seen steepest decline among two sections of the society — farmers and traders — where their popularity has nosedived by nine and seven percentage points respectively.

This has also resulted in rival Congress gaining by six and nine percentage points respectively in the two categories.

As many as 53 percent of the surveyed farmers said that the Centre had done a ‘bad job’ in addressing their concerns.

While the youth are most likely to vote for the BJP, the saffron party’s popularity has declined sharpest (nine percentage points) among this group, compared to other age groups. BJP’s popularity has declined across all age bands in the last eight months.

The Modi government has been rated poorly on the inflation front by the people with majority of the respondents feeling that the government has done a ‘bad job’ in controlling price rise.

The survey shows that people’s opinion on ‘Achhe Din’ has reversed in eight months. Around 50 percent people said that the PM Modi ‘failed to bring achhe din’ while the number was 27 percent in May 2017.

Respondents said that India’s biggest problem was jobs, followed by poverty, corruption and price rise.

Unemployment was seen as the biggest problem in north India while poverty was the biggest issue in west-central India.

However, large number of people who said unemployment, corruption and price rise were major issues, are more likely to vote for the BJP, the survey found.

Modi remains the most preferred choice for the prime ministerial position with 37 percent preference votes. However, the number is down from 44 percent in May 2017.

Number of people opting for Congress President Rahul Gandhi as their prime ministerial preference has more than doubled, from nine percent to 20 percent in eight months.

According to the findings, Congress and its allies have gained in towns and small cities. However, they continue to fare poorly in big cities.

The findings of the survey are based on responses from 14,336 people spread across 19 States of India - Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

The survey covered 175 parliamentary constituencies and 700 polling locations.