To be or not to be? – Sachin Pilot’s Hamletian dilemma in Rajasthan

Can Sachin Pilot emerge as a third force in Rajasthan when across India they are getting marginalised like BSP in UP, JD(S) in Karnataka, BJP in Kerala etc?

Sachin Pilot is at a crossroad in his political career. Sidelined in the Rajasthan Congress unit, after promises and assurances, he needs to decide his future course of action. With elections approaching, time is running out. His decision is likely to impact Rajasthan's electoral dynamics, given its history of throwing out incumbent governments.
“Will he, won’t he” form a new political party on the death anniversary of his father Rajesh Pilot on June 11? While speculation is rife, he has denied any such moves and is waiting for Rahul Gandhi’s return on June 12. He may wait/want to hear for the last time, the truce formula, before he jumps ship, which seems inevitable as per some observers.

The options before Sachin, who has been pushed to a corner by the wily Ashok Gehlot, are limited:

• float a new regional party
• remain in Congress and wait for his turn in 2028
• join Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP
• cross over to BJP
  

Forming a new political party is not easy. It requires huge resources. Corporates backing parties is an open secret but who would wish to fund a new entity that has no chance of winning the state in its debut election? The Gujjar community which Sachin belongs to is politically very influential. However, it is not affluent.

Attracting candidates is not going to be an issue for Pilot as rebels/
disgruntled/ denied ticket aspirants from both Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party could gravitate to him.

Smaller parties and Independents have secured around 20-25 percent of the vote share in Rajasthan on an average. Parties like Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, Hanuman Beniwal’s Rashtriya Loktantrik Party and Conrad Sangma’s National People’s Party have performed decently well in the last few elections, along with Independents. Pilot could hope to consolidate these anti-Congress, anti-BJP votes in his favour.

Can he emerge as a third force in the state when across India they are getting marginalised like BSP in UP, JD(S) in Karnataka, BJP in Kerala etc? That’s a million dollar question. Note that both Congress and BJP recorded around 40 percent vote share in the 2018 elections leaving little for a third front.

Pilot could pull some Congress votes and in turn damage Gehlot’s comeback bid. This is likely to help the BJP in return. However, Pilot and BJP need to be wary of the 2012 episode with Manpreet Badal.

Manpreet, cousin of Sukhbir Badal, split from Akali Dal and formed his own party, People’s Party of Punjab. It was anticipated that Manpreet would damage Akali Dal and help Congress win hands down. However, to everyone’s shock the Akali Dal plus BJP alliance managed to make a comeback, as the presence of PRP led to a split in opposition votes.

Pilot could form a grand alliance with RLP and AAP aiming for an umbrella coalition of Gujjars, Jats and attract poor and youth voters. In the past, leaders of North India like Arjun Singh, Madhavrao Scindia, VC Shukla, formed their own parties with such hopes but had to make a comeback to the grand old party. They left as tigers but returned as sheep, in the worlds of a Congress leader of that era. The option of ghar wapsi while not closed, will not be easily available for Pilot.

Option 2: Stay In Congress

Pilot could also remain in the Congress and accept his fait accompli, hoping he gets something in return for his loyalty. He is the future of the party in Rajasthan. After these elections, if Gehlot loses, Pilot could strike and become the face of the party for 2028 elections. However, five years is a long time in politics.

Does he have the patience to wait for his turn? He has age on his side. However, this may not placate his supporters. His dilly dallying is also not helping him and making him look weak.

Option 3: Become AAP’s Rajasthan Face 

He could join AAP and become its face in the state. This way he will not face the issue of resources and can use AAP’s brand and electoral machinery. But would he want to work under Kejriwal, who is a political junior to him? That’s not an easy decision. Kejriwal is also a one-man army and his autocratic tendencies have been amply clear.

Kejriwal doesn’t like competition, and that’s why many stalwarts/founders of the AAP have left the party like Yogendra Yadav and Prashant Bhushan. Pilot’s induction could make Kejriwal uncomfortable as he enjoys a national stature.

Option 4: Follow Other Young Turks

Pilot can follow Scindia’s footsteps and join the BJP. BJP benefits from another OBC leader in its kitty and will make for good optics before the polls. It solves BJP’s worry of a split in opposition votes in Rajasthan in the event of Pilot forming a regional party.

However, there is no upside for Pilot. He was already Deputy CM in Congress government, the saffron party will not be able to offer anything better. It will also establish Gehlot’s accusation that he was hobnobbing with the BJP to bring down his government.

Some would say it is better than being at the margins. A Union cabinet portfolio like Scindia won’t hurt either. However, a Pilot entry would only increase BJP’s headache in managing aspirations, complicate its leadership issue, and aggravate factionalism in the Rajasthan unit. Even in 2020, Vasundhara wasn’t in favour of his entry.

To sum up, the drama which is now nearing five years is entering its climax. All eyes are now on how it all ends, for Pilot, Gehlot and the Congress.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.