Tamil Nadu Elections | DMK won’t have it easy as AIADMK won’t give up without a fight

Tamil Nadu Assembly Election 2021 (Original images: Twitter/@CMOTamilNadu, @mkstalin and @ikamalhaasan)

In a wave-less election where there are no stalwarts to sweep voters off their feet, neither the fancied Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) nor the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), which is trying for a third stint in power, are letting their guards down.

That said, pre-poll surveys have comfortably placed the DMK-led alliance to win the April 6 Tamil Nadu assembly elections. Now, an average of at least five opinion polls show that the DMK-alliance winning 147 seats, the AIADMK alliance winning 78 seats, and other parties — which include Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) and AIADMK rebel leader TTV Dhinakaran’s  Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) — six seats. The house has 234 seats.

Yet, DMK strategists do not think it to be a cake walk. They acknowledge the absence of a strong anti-incumbency wave against Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, though undercurrents in many seats place the AIADMK in the second spot after the DMK.

Past Mistakes

Consequently, 68-year-old DMK chief MK Stalin’s ambition of becoming Chief Minister may be close to realisation. He is literally on the roads for days together to woo the undecided voters who can make a big difference to the number of seats the DMK will win. Stalin minces no words in stating that his goal is not to repeat the follies of the 2006 polls, which had prevented the DMK from a decisive mandate and increased dependency on the allies. This emerged in spite of the presence of towering patriarch M Karunanidhi being at the helm.

In 2006, the DMK, which had sought a vote to ‘make Karunanidhi CM again’ had emerged as the single-largest party with 96 seats. Only with the help of allies like the Congress, which won 34 seats, Karunanidhi was sworn in as Chief Minister. However, throughout that term, despite his failing health, Karunanidhi had decided against handing over the baton to Stalin (who remained a Deputy Chief Minister) to avoid sibling rivalry.

The Upper Hand

This time around, the entire DMK campaign’s visual and social media underscores Stalin’s appeal. This was also the reason why the DMK restricted the Congress to contesting in 25 seats despite a lot of heartburn among the latter’s rank and file. Stalin had stressed that every seat matters and the DMK won’t let any alliance partner lose it to the AIADMK.

In all, the DMK is contesting 173 of the 234 seats, and has got its allies to contest under its ‘Rising Sun’ poll symbol in 15 other seats, taking the total to 188 ‘Rising Sun’ candidates.

Similarly, the AIADMK is contesting 179 seats, leaving 23 seats for the Pattali Maakal Katchi (PMK) and 20 for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The AIADMK has also asked its smaller allies to fight on its ‘Two Leaves’ poll symbol in 12 seats — making a total of 191 candidates.

Direct Contest

Seat allocation shows that the DMK and the AIADMK are in direct contest only in 131 seats. The AIADMK faces the Congress in 15 seats, the CPI(M), CPI and Thol Thirumavalavan’s pro-Dalit Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) in five seats each.

In 2016, the AIADMK contested all 234 seats. The DMK was then in the fray in just 178 seats.
MNM leader Haasan is hoping to make an impression this time and, become king-maker in the event of a close contest and hung house. However, neither the DMK nor the AIADMK think that the MNM is a factor. On the other hand, Stalin counts on the AMMK to damage the AIADMK’s prospects in southern districts.

Caste Equations

Sensing trouble to his own borough from the AMMK, Deputy Chief Minister and AIADMK co-ordinator O Panneerselvam has caused a stir by extending an olive branch to VK Sasikala who bowed out of the race after her release from jail in January. Sasikala is Dhinakaran’s aunt but she had distanced herself from his ambitious plans to demolish the AIADMK after Palaniswami’s refusal to accommodate both aunt and nephew in the party.

Now, much to the chagrin of Palaniswami, Panneerselvam has declared in a TV interview that he has a lot of respect for Sasikala and he remains a “loyal friend” to Dhinakaran. His remarks were seen as an attempt to prevent a caste backlash in the Mukkulathor (Thevar)-dominated constituencies where Dhinakaran is painting him as one who betrayed their caste by aligning with Palaniswami.

Some Thevar community leaders are upset with Palaniswami for sealing a deal with the PMK by announcing an internal quota for the Vanniyars within the OBC reservation. The Mukkulathor is a sub-sect of the Thevar community to which both Panneerselvam, Sasikala and Dhinakaran belong.

So upset was Palaniswami with his deputy, they apparently met at a hotel in Salem on March 24 during which the Chief Minister requested Panneerselvam to not jeopardise the existing arrangements.

All through his campaign, Palaniswami exudes confidence of ensuring a close contest between the AIADMK and the DMK, no matter what pre-poll surveys say.