Tamil Nadu | BJP could benefit in EPS-OPS battle for AIADMK

Edappadi K Palaniswami (right) and O Panneerselvam. (Image: PTI/File)

Tamil Nadu former Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) rejecting the unity call by All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) co-ordinator O Panneerselvam (OPS) signals a prolonged leadership battle in the party, and it is likely to open up the chances for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to make inroads in the state. The BJP is the only other party playing the opposition role in the Dravidian heartland.

However, playing the role of the Opposition alone does not guarantee gains for the BJP, since it has a long way to go in erasing its image of an anti-Tamil party, which is helping North Indians snatch away job opportunities for locals, hampering the economy of the state, and denying educational opportunities for Tamil youth. Besides, Tamil identity politics has a stronger appeal than BJP’s Hindutva ideology, which has failed to fetch electoral dividends for the saffron party.

The power struggle in the AIADMK, which has formed the government in Tamil Nadu several times since its inception in 1972, has taken a new turn with indications of OPS joining hands with former Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa’s close aide VK Sasikala and Amma Makkal Munnettra Kazhagam (AMMK) leader TTV Dhinakaran to take on EPS who still commands the support of over 90 percent of general council members in the AIADMK.

To gain the upper hand OPS is expected to play the community card here. Even if the former deputy Chief Minister allows Sasikala and Dhinakaran back into the AIADMK, EPS’ support in the general council will remain strong. To weaken this, OPS could turn to the party cadre, especially in the southern and eastern districts of Tamil Nadu, which is dominated by the Mukkulathor community to which OPS, Sasikala, and Dhinakaran belong.

The Election Commission of India’s decision in 2017 to award the ‘Two Leaves’ symbol for the OPS faction before its merger with the EPS faction was a significant win for OPS over EPS. Now, the OPS camp firmly believes that the fear of losing the symbol could force EPS to soften his stand and join hands with OPS. Moreover, it is believed that the BJP would prefer a united AIADMK in the run-up to the 2024 general elections, and EPS is unlikely to oppose the plans of the BJP top leadership, especially Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

For EPS, though he has the overwhelming support of party functionaries and former minister cutting across community lines and regions, he cannot convene a general council meeting to prove that support. The July 11 general council meet has been declared invalid on technical grounds.  For now, it seems that EPS’ chances of being AIADMK general secretary is a distant dream.

The longer it takes to resolve the leadership issue, the more are the chances of the AIADMK’s support base eroding and the enthusiasm of the party cadre dampening. This tussle takes place at a time when resentment against the MK Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) government is growing among the voters. The BJP is the only other party which is in the Opposition space, because other parties including the Congress, the Left, Vaiko’s Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), and Thirumavalavan’s Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) are in an alliance with the DMK.

The BJP’s strategy of nominating non-Brahmins such as Thamizhisai Soundarrajan (Telangana Governor) and K Annamalai to the party’s state president, and elevating L Murugan (a Dalit leader) to the Union ministry has helped change the perception of it being an upper caste party.

However, in Tamil Nadu there is widespread resentment and allegations against the BJP-led Union government of appointing North Indians to many jobs, in nationalised banks, post offices, and public sector companies like Neyveli Lignite Corporation, in Tamil Nadu. The national party is accused of denying educational opportunities for Tamil youth, especially from the rural areas and oppressed sections. The Tamil youth perceive loss of jobs, education, and economic opportunities to North Indians as a threat to their identity and existence, token gestures will not help the BJP shed its anti-Tamil image.

There is also speculation that EPS, who has begun distancing himself from the BJP, would form an alternative alliance by weaning away a few parties from the DMK fold. In such a scenario, even if the BJP manages to stitch an alliance with OPS, a three-way race would split the votes, and benefit the DMK in the 2024 general elections.