Proposed Ukraine-Russia peace talks dead on arrival

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the southern city of Kherson on November 14 to celebrate its recapture from Russian forces with joyful residents and troops after months of Russian occupation. (Image: Reuters)

The possibility of holding peace talks to end the Ukraine war may have created a buzz over the past few weeks, but observers remain sceptical about the sincerity of Ukrainian and Russian leaders to end the ongoing conflict through negotiations.

They feel that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin were using the peace rhetoric to regroup and continue their war effort in order to overwhelm the other militarily.

On December 26, Zelensky had a telephone conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and urged him to use India’s G20 presidency to implement his 10-point peace plan to end the Ukraine war.

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From the early days of the war, India has been consistent in asking for a cessation of violence and return to talks to find a peaceful solution to outstanding differences between the two sides.

Modi had highlighted the great human tragedy unfolding in different parts of the world as a result of the conflict and the disruption it had caused in the supply of energy, food, and other essentials.

He also told Putin that this was not the ‘era of war,’ when the two met on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Uzbekistan this September.

Under India’s presidency of the G20, Modi is certainly going to make a serious effort to convince world leaders to create an atmosphere to bring the war to an early end.

But the peace plan proposed by Zelensky has raised doubts in the minds of many observers.

The plan contains a proposal to put Russian leaders on trial and also an assurance that all Ukrainian territory that has been taken by Russia will be returned.

Observers think such conditions will only make the peace talks a non-starter as Russia will never agree to them.

Russia’s willingness for peace talks is also not being taken seriously.

Western leaders see this as an attempt on Moscow’s part to convince the US and European Union (EU) leaders not to supply any more weapons to Ukraine in order to pave the way for negotiations to end the conflict.

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Moreover, if the supply of weapons from the west is halted, Russia may use that opportunity to redouble its effort to pound Ukraine further and force it to sue for peace.

But Zelensky’s efforts are also being seen as a tactic that is aimed at addressing his audience in the West.

Observers believe that the fear of a “Ukraine fatigue” developing in the West may have prompted the Ukrainian President to propose the peace conference in February.

Zelensky has enjoyed steady support from the US and the EU in the ongoing war with Russia, both in terms of money and weapons.

The US and EU have so far committed over $100 billion to help Ukraine stand up to Russian aggression.

But Zelensky’s categorical refusal to negotiate with Russia as long as Putin remains in power has alarmed many in the West about supporting an unending war.

Reports in the western media said the Joe Biden administration had suggested to Zelensky that he stop talking about his opposition to Putin publicly and instead propose the peace conference.

Washington felt that adopting such a position could convince Ukraine’s supporters in the West that Zelensky was sincerely looking to end the war even while putting up a stiff resistance against Russian aggression.

The Ukrainian President suggested that the peace conference in February be at the UN, with the secretary-general Antonio Guterres as the mediator.

But it is not clear if Ukraine wants Russia to be present there as not only has it called for the Russian President to be put on trial, but also wants to remove Russia from its permanent seat in the UN Security Council.

Significantly, as Zelensky renewed his effort to talk about the peace conference he also visited the US and got an assurance of continued support from the American leadership.

Russia strongly criticised the visit and accused the US of fighting an indirect war against it.

US President Joe Biden pledged $1.85 billion in military aid to Ukraine, including the surface-to-air Patriot missile system to help it against Russian attacks.

While Zelensky welcomed the assistance, Russia said these “provocative actions” would lead to an escalation with severe consequences.

Meanwhile, enthusiasm about the proposed international peace summit on Ukraine seems to be running out with doubts being expressed on whether it will genuinely promote a cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia.

Observers say the two sides’ understanding of peace is far apart as Russia wants to maintain the status quo, while Ukraine wants to restore the pre-war status quo.

Russia has also made it clear that a precondition for peace talks that requires it to withdraw from Ukraine was “unacceptable.”

Many experts think that in the absence of Russia’s participation, the peace summit may end up as a public trial against Russia and as another attempt to denunciate and isolate Moscow.

Therefore, unless the US gets seriously involved in the peace talks with Russia instead of leaving the decision to Ukraine, an early end to the ongoing conflict that has severely affected Europe and much of the world seems totally unrealistic.