Politics | Will AAP’s ambition and Congress’ optimism work to BJP’s advantage?

One of the most fascinating concepts proposed in the 20th Century is Schrödinger's cat, the thought experiment that explains a paradox in quantum mechanics. According to the Nobel-Prize winning physicist Erwin Schrödinger, it was impossible to know the state of the cat inside the metal box and thus it could be both alive and dead at the same time. Sounds puzzling? It was Schrödinger's way of debunking quantum superposition.

Over the decades, the experiment has found several references in pop culture, such as in the TV sitcom The Big Bang Theory. If there was a political equivalent to it, without doubt, the question would be: Is the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress fighting the 2019 Lok Sabha polls as an alliance or not?

For more than four months now media leaks, speculations, clarifications and counter-clarifications have been doing the rounds regarding an AAP-Congress alliance in Delhi to fight the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Finally, on April 22, the Congress announced its list of candidates for six of the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi — and closed the window for an alliance. Or did it? This is because a day later Congress President Rahul Gandhi said that his party was ready for a “last second” tie-up.

AAP had earlier announced its seven candidates to all the seats in Delhi.

The confusion surrounding the AAP-Congress combine is a good example of how in politics, ambition overrides pragmatism and ego supersedes reality to create a political smog — a smog through which the BJP is likely to walk through in a leisurely manner to the finish line.

Related stories

Viju Cherian

Opinion Editor|moneycontrol.com

• 
  Gujarat shows an invincible BJP, Himachal Pradesh exposes chinks in its armour
• 
  Tharoor Vs Kharge | Congress’ intra-party democracy withers on the vine
• 
  By visiting Taiwan, Nancy Pelosi has called China’s bluff

Reason for optimism

In 2014, riding high on a ‘Modi wave’ the BJP won all the seven seats in the state — every candidate won by a margin of more than 100,000 votes. In second place was AAP, and relegated to a humbling (and humiliating) third was the Congress, which was the incumbent in all seven seats.

However, since 2014, the BJP at the Centre has faltered on multiple occasions. So, it would not be a cakewalk for its candidates this time. AAP has reason to be optimistic because it won the 2015 assembly polls in a thumping manner and has since concentrated on fulfilling many of its promises. It is approaching the electorate on the basis of these achievements. For the Congress what gives hope is the revival of the party in the state and the hope that an anti-BJP sentiment would work in its favour.

The deal-breaker

According to media reports and information shared by both parties, it is clear that a 4:3 seat-sharing formula was nearly struck, with AAP getting four seats and three for the Congress. According to Gandhi, though the state Congress leaders were initially reluctant to the alliance, by the time they were convinced, Delhi Chief Minister and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal added Haryana to the equation. Some sources said that AAP wanted an 18-seat alliance spread across Delhi (seven seats), Chandigarh (one seat) and Haryana (10 seats). This was the deal-breaker.

Lessons from 2014

Now AAP cannot be faulted for being ambitious; after all, the party has been growing its base in the state. It won 33 per cent of the vote share in the 2014 general elections and a year later in the assembly polls won a whopping 54.5 per cent in Delhi.

Without doubt, the 2014 general elections and the 2015 assembly polls were forgettable outings for the grand old party. In 2014, its vote share plummeted by almost 42 per cent to 15.2 per cent! In 2015, all it received was an unmentionable 9.7 per cent of the votes polled.

Be that as it may, the Congress has mainly three reasons to be optimistic about its chances this time. First, the 2017 MCD elections saw the Congress pocket a respectable 21.1 per cent of the votes, while AAP had 26.2 per cent and the BJP had 36.1 per cent. The local units are slowly picking up momentum and this is encouraging for the party. Second, with former Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit as Congress state chief, the party is led by a warhorse who governed Delhi for two full terms and is credited for changing Delhi into the metropolitan city it is today. Third, the anti-BJP sentiments and the disillusioned, undecided voters could be attracted to Congress’ promises.

Even if this strategy backfires, the Congress would be hoping that this outing will help it in the 2020 assembly polls. If that is the case, it is underestimating the BJP juggernaut that treats every election like a general election, maintains a constant tempo and does not show electoral courtesies while ensuring that it wins.

BJP, the beneficiary

A three-way contest in Delhi is music to the BJP’s ears. If AAP and the Congress were to fight together, the joint vote-share of both parties (based on the 2014 numbers) is more than the BJP’s in six of the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi. For example, in the North West Delhi constituency, the BJP polled 46.45 per cent of the votes in the 2014 elections — the combined tally of AAP and the Congress was 50.18 per cent. Similarly, in Chandni Chowk the BJP’s number was 44.6 per cent, while the AAP-Congress combine was 48.67 per cent.

Now, with a three-way contest, the BJP can be rest assured that its seats are safe. Unless, of course, there is a “last second”, tacit understanding between AAP and the Congress. To know that one will have to wait till May 23 when the ballot boxes are opened — much like to know whether Schrödinger's cat is alive or dead, one will have to open the box.

For more Opinion pieces, click here.