Politics | Why Raj Thackeray could gain from an ED probe

Sujata Anandan

In more ways than one Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray could yet prove a thorn in the side of the ruling dispensation. During the Lok Sabha polls this summer, he unequivocally took on the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and directly attacked Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Now with the Enforcement Directorate (ED) questioning him in connection to its probe into IL&FS’ Rs 800 crore loan and equity investment into Kohinoor CTNL, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government could be accused of being vindictive, and of using government agencies and institutions against political rivals.

The ED is using the Kohinoor land deal to corner Raj Thackeray. Kohinoor was first envisaged as a huge upmarket mall by its promoters (mainly the ILFS and former Maharashtra chief minister Manohar Joshi's son Unmesh Joshi). However, the mall failed to get an anchor store, and from there its profile changed several times to now become a part-commercial, part-housing enterprise.

Raj was an early investor who exited the project within the first couple of years. Moreover, his uncle and Shiv Sena founder Bal Thackeray was greatly annoyed by his involvement in the Kohinoor deal for many reasons.

First, the deal was benefitting the Gujaratis more than Bal Thackeray’s beloved Marathi manoos. Second, his uncle knew that Raj could not have on his own raised the Rs 400-odd crore he invested in Kohinoor.

Bal Thackeray suspected that the money was loaned to Raj by Manohar Joshi who was then trying to appropriate a bigger role for himself by playing mediator between Raj and his estranged cousin Uddhav Thackeray. Involving Raj rather than Uddhav in the project seemed rather like enriching one cousin over the other. As Raj had no quarrels with his uncle, he cut his losses both financially and politically and exited the deal.

Raj has taken these recent developments in his stride and with equanimity because it benefits him to be seen as a victim of political vendetta.

Moreover, Uddhav, who has rooted for Raj in this case, has been greatly had by the BJP just ahead of the assembly elections in Maharashtra. Five years ago, the BJP broke its alliance with the Shiv Sena over the seat sharing formula when Uddhav refused to break the 171-117 ratio on the grounds that the Sena was the more rooted party in Maharashtra. The BJP wanted an equal share of the 288 seats in the assembly.

The BJP now has 122 sitting MLAs and the Shiv Sena is at half with about 62. The BJP now proposes that the remaining seats be divided in equal halves between the two parties. This neatly turns the tables on the Shiv Sena which cannot hope to win more seats than the BJP on this formula, especially when it is greatly overwhelmed and overshadowed by Modi’s charisma.

This is where Raj can hope to gain by taking the place of the Shiv Sena in the regional sweepstakes. Given the BJP’s high decibel Hindutva campaign, which Uddhav has wholly endorsed, Raj is consciously rooting for the space being vacated by the Shiv Sena, which has ended up as neither fish nor fowl in the alliance with the BJP.

Political observers wonder at Raj’s change of heart and ideology, and the doubt is whether this shift is temporary or not. The fact is that Raj has gone over from Narendra Modi to Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar, and that is influencing his politics.

In the early years, Raj rooted for Modi when the latter was persona non grata to many political parties, including some now part of the NDA. Among those was Bal Thackeray who openly endorsed the late Sushma Swaraj for prime minister in 2012, rejecting Modi's claim to the office. When the tide turned in the BJP’s favour, Raj was dropped like a hot potato, especially after he failed to win elections. However, Pawar took him under his wings, and Raj's winning or losing did not matter to Pawar as he realised that irrespective of the electoral results, Raj was a crowd puller.

With the NCP gradually declining and likely to merge with the Congress, with or without Pawar’s consent, and the Shiv Sena having no distinct identity anymore, Raj Thackeray has been quick to recognise the possibilities the future offers.

Raj Thackeray is now presented with an opportunity that his uncle had decades back — to play the victim card. Being the alleged target of the ruling dispensation and being ‘attacked’ by the Centre offers that opportunity.

With all these developments expect some paradigm shifts in Maharashtra politics in the near future.

Sujata Anandan is a senior journalist and author. Views are personal.