Politics | Future tense for Congress and rebels

File Photo

Even though both the Congress and its latest high-profile defector Jyotiraditya Scindia have cried betrayal and triumph on behalf of the people of Madhya Pradesh, what happened in Madhya Pradesh was a clash between the politics of feudal patronage and power, and Scindia prevailed with the crucial support of political heft provided by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

If the winner has been such bare-knuckled power-politics, the losers have been the people who now stare at the return of the BJP — whose government the people unseated 15 months ago, one which was alleged of corruption, lack of governance, etc.

While there is internal squabbling in the BJP over the Chief Minister’s post, it is likely to be resolved soon. For the Congress, demotivated and effectively leaderless, it is critical to contain the cascading effect of Scindia’s defection in neighbouring Rajasthan as well as in other state units.

By-elections

In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress and its remaining two tallest state leaders, Digvijaya Singh and Kamal Nath have their task cut out. They have to stem the plummeting morale among the remaining MLAs and cadre, as well as effectively lead the party’s campaign in the impending by-elections.

Though all life has been disrupted by the outbreak of Covid-19, it’s only a matter of time before the election commission announces the dates for the elections to the 24 seats belonging all but one to MLAs who rebelled under the Scindia banner. All the 23 rebels have joined the BJP in a simple ceremony wherein one MLA after another swore allegiance to the BJP in the presence of Scindia.

Uncertainty looms

Although assured of tickets as part of the deal to topple the Kamal Nath government, the rebel MLAs are in a heightened state of anxiety as now they have to go back to their constituents and explain the political U-turn. Despite the bravado and celebratory posturing at the moment, there is also widespread resentment among Congress workers who feel cheated by the Scindia camp of the 2018 mandate.

Additionally, these turncoats would also have to contend with the ‘dagger-like glares’ from local BJP leaders in their constituencies. In most cases the margin of victory over their former foes was not more than a few thousand votes, and in order to win again, they would need the support of a substantial number of BJP cadre. At the moment it is difficult to say if long-time BJP leaders and supporters would simply acquiesce to their leadership and throw their weight behind the latest entrants. After all, what’s in the balance is the survival and political future of the local BJP leaders too.

The state Congress is planning to target the rebels as ‘greedy traitors’ who were led by a power-hungry ‘maharaj’ (a reference to Scindia and his royal family lineage) to rob the mandate given to the party after 15 years of BJP rule. It hopes that such a campaign will strike a chord given that there are still large pockets in Madhya Pradesh where the Congress is in a position of strength.

By highlighting Scindia’s opportunism, the Congress also plans to highlight the massive deprivation, including malnutrition, which plagues the Chambal-Bundelkhand region, parts of which are considered to be Scindia’s fiefdom.

Digvijaya’s Dilemma

For Singh, a minor dynast himself, the battle to retain his Rajya Sabha membership has become tougher after the defection of MLAs because there are no longer enough votes to ensure both Singh and the Dalit leader Phool Singh Baraiya are elected.

Will the two-term former Chief Minister step aside for Baraiya? If he does that it will not only restore some of his own credibility, which has once again hit rock bottom, but it might also boost Congress’ chances in the upcoming bypolls ,as Baraiya induction is likely to send a positive message to the SC/ST sections. Moreover, it will also help the party in selling its narrative of a ‘greedy’ Maharaja usurping people’s mandate by positing a polar opposite such as Baraiya.

In his resignation speech Nath said that there was always a ‘tomorrow’ and ‘day after’ in politics — the grand old party would do well to remember those words if it is serious about its survival.

Valay Singh is a freelance journalist. Views are personal.