Opinion | Wanted: A ban on poll promises by politicians that offer no details

rahul gandhi narendra modi

Congress President Rahul Gandhi at a campaign rally in Chhattisgarh announced that his party would roll out a guaranteed minimum income scheme for the poor across the country should the Congress be voted back into power at the Centre in May.

The Congress chief neither offered any details of the proposed scheme nor did he explain how a government would be able to pull off the math associated with it.

Former finance minister P Chidambaram was quick to extol the decision as “historic”, and went on to make another claim: any such rollout would not disturb the government’s fiscal situation.

But Gandhi’s “historic” announcement has a problem. It is indicative of a malaise that runs commonly in polity, not just in India but also globally. Come elections, parties routinely make over-the-top announcements that they will have a hard time fulfilling.

The Election Commission should put a stop to such promises, making it mandatory for political parties to provide at least a realistic assessment on how they will be achieved, and how any finances in this regard will be arranged.

It is not to say that guaranteed basic income is an idea that should be dismissed out of hand. Given the rising challenges that all governments face on employment, especially with increasing automation, it is something that should be taken seriously.

But that should not be used as a free pass to make headline announcements.

For instance, it is clear that the math in the case of Gandhi’s proposed minimum guarantee scheme is not doable. If the government were to roll out a monthly income of, say, Rs 3,000 a month to every poor – conservatively estimated at 30 percent of the population, or 40 crore – it would cost the exchequer about Rs 14.4 lakh crore. That’s more than half of the government budget.

There are other ways in which the concept can be considered. For instance, we’ve previously argued that the government could roll out a small version of universal basic income, promising an annual payout of Rs 8,241 per annum covering 40 percent of the population. To make it largely Budget-neutral, it will have to subsume a whole host of central government welfare programmes – such as MGNREGA, mid-day meals, crop insurance, and even the subsidies on food, fertiliser and cooking gas.

The Rs 8,241 per annum figure was first proposed in the Economic Survey in 2017, though one can argue whether it is enough to provide for the bare minimum threshold of “sustenance”.

Raghuram Rajan called for an outright ban on political parties promising farm loan waivers – most notably again promised, and later partially executed, by the Congress during the recent state polls -- calling such a move bad economics.

But the Congress isn’t the only party guilty of making lofty promises.

As is well known, the BJP’s 2014 manifesto had several promises – such as building 100 smart cities; Budget 2014 provided a measly allocation of Rs 70 crore per smart city – that it has hardly kept up with, not to mention Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s infamous Rs 15 lakh claim, which may or may not qualify as a poll promise.

In 2017, a social worker had moved the Gujarat High Court seeking to make parties accountable for not keeping promises made in poll manifestos. The court had agreed to make both the Congress and BJP respondents to the case -- though the progress on it is not known.

Even former Chief Justice JS Khehar at an event the same year called manifestos “a mere piece of paper” and called on the Election Commission to carry out reforms in this area.

At the very least, perhaps the EC could take a leaf out of SEBI’s book. Just as mutual funds are forced to declare that past performance is no indicator of future results, maybe poll manifestos should have the disclaimer: “This booklet is subject to hyperbole”.