Manipur Elections | Smaller parties could emerge as kingmakers again

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A unique feature of politics in Manipur, unlike the rest of the Northeastern states, has been the sudden rise of smaller parties, and their key role as kingmakers after the assembly polls. In the 2012 assembly election, the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) won seven seats of the total of 60, although the legislators soon deserted the party to join either the Congress or the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Similarly, in 2017, the National People’s Party (NPP) won four seats, and the Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) won one seat.

The events after the 2017 elections in Manipur, when the governor defied the established norm to spurn the Congress which was the single-largest party and invited the BJP to form the government, enhanced the importance of smaller parties. The four NPP MLAs grabbed Cabinet berths; the Naga People’s Front (NPF), which had also won four seats, settled for two Cabinet posts, and the lone LJP MLA too received a berth.

The forthcoming elections — scheduled for two phases on February 28 and March 5 — is unlikely to be an exception so far as this trend is concerned. The party to watch out this time around is the Janata Dal (United), which was unheard of in Manipur earlier. Four well-known leaders, two each from the BJP and the Congress, have joined the JDU, brightening the prospects of this Hindi-heartland party in a few seats. The party’s general secretary in Manipur has announced that it will support any political party that has chances of forming the new government in Manipur.

The other two parties with a bright prospect are the NPP and the NPF. The NPP, an ally of the BJP in three Northeastern states, hopes to improve upon its 2017 tally of four seats. Buoyed by its performance in 2017 when it contested from only nine seats, the party has decided to go alone in Manipur, and has fielded candidates from 40 constituencies. In its manifesto, the NPP has promised the Scheduled Tribe status for the Hindu Meitei and the Muslim Meitei-Pangal communities, resolving the vexed the Naga political issue, and repeal of the controversial Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019.

The NPP is a party brimming with confidence, and it has the potential to upset the BJP’s calculations in some seats. It has alleged that several militant outfits have come out in support of the NPF and the BJP, and also campaigning for the twin parties. The party has sought security for its candidates and has demanded that weapons be seized from all the rebel groups in Manipur.

In 2020, the BJP-led government in Manipur was on a sticky wicket after three of its legislators resigned from the assembly and the NPP withdrew support. The government managed to survive after the NPP and most of the MLAs reversed their decisions, and chose to continue with the BJP. So, it is quite likely that BJP’s first choice for coalition partners would be the JD(U) and the NPF, and it might prefer not to be dependent upon the NPP.

Unlike the NPP, the NPF (which also has four MLAs), is contesting only from 10 Naga-dominated seats in the hill districts. However, as the latest trends suggest, the party will face a stiff contest from the Congress in a majority of the seats from where it has fielded candidates.

However, the Congress’ journey in Manipur has been similar to its trajectory in Assam, with many of its MLAs deserting the party. Its strength was reduced to 13 from a total of 28 after the 2017 elections. The grand old party has joined hands with the CPI, the CPI(M), the Forward Block, the RSP, and the JD(S) to stitch the Manipur Progressive Secular Alliance (MPSA), and has announced an 18-point common agenda. However, there are widespread charges against the party that it had remained ‘disconnected’ with the masses over the past five years.

The BJP, too, is suffering from indiscipline which was evidenced from the mayhem after the list of the candidates was announced. But the party is resourceful; it appears more confident than the Congress, and has decided to contest all the 60 seats on its own.

Rajeev Bhattacharyya is a Guwahati-based senior journalist. 

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.