Karnataka: Good showing for BJP-led NDA but was this a missed opportunity for INDIA Bloc

Karnataka was expected to be a close contest.

Going into the elections, Karnataka was earmarked as a potential swing state. In 2019, the BJP won 25 out of the total 28 seats, with an additional seat (Mandya) won by an independent candidate backed by the party. This time around, a lot has changed since 2019. The Karnataka Congress was energized by their excellent performance in the 2023 Assembly Elections. The Siddaramaiah government successfully implemented the five guarantees, programs that proved to be very popular amongst voters. The BJP state leadership was on a sticky wicket with internal divisions and anti-incumbency against several sitting MPs. Unlike in 2019, when the BJP fought alone, the BJP and JDS were in an alliance with Congress, contesting on their own. Overall, the situation on the ground had shifted significantly since 2019, and many expected Karnataka to be a close contest.

As of 11 PM on 4^th June, the NDA has won a total of 19 seats, with the Congress taking the remaining 9. Of the NDA's 19 seats, the BJP won 17 and two by the JDS. The BJP has had a strong showing in Bengaluru City, Coastal Karnataka and Kittur Karnataka. The Congress performed exceptionally well in Kalyana Karnataka, bagging all five seats from the region. The NDA alliance had a popular vote share of 51.66 percent, of which 46.06 percent was for the BJP. The Congress had a popular vote share of 45.43 percent.

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The results have left both sides asking whether this was a missed opportunity. For the BJP, the results clearly show a decline compared to 2019. While this is a marked improvement for the Congress, the BJP-JDS combined won the lion's share of the Lok Sabha seats from the state. The party failed to capitalize on the momentum it had generated during the 2023 Assembly Elections. Therefore, both sides will walk away with a hint of disappointment.

Three important factors have played a key role in shaping the overall verdict in Karnataka. First is the impact of the BJP-JDS coalition. On the ground, the alliance has helped the BJP consolidate the Vokkaliga vote bank. This effectively negated Congress's efforts to build a Vokkaliga base. In 2023, with D.K. Shivakumar's help, the Congress made important inroads in the Vokkaliga heartland. The alliance helped the BJP take on the Congress in Vokkaliga-dominated seats. In Bangalore Rural, the BJP candidate defeated D.K. Shivakumar’s brother, D.K. Suresh. This is a significant blow to the Karnataka Congress. Similarly, in seats like Mysore, Mandya, Tumkur, and Kolar, the combined BJP-JDS trumped Congress. Ultimately, the BJP’s Vokkaliga plus Lingayat support base worked well for the party in Mysuru and Kittur Karnataka.

Read : BJP’s Southern Gamble: The highs and lows of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections

Secondly, the Congress has had a strong showing in Kalyana Karnataka, winning seats in Bidar, Gulbarga, Raichur, Koppal and Bellary. These victories are crucial as Kalyana Karnataka is Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge’s home turf. Congress workers have quickly attributed this success to Kharge’s leadership and planning. In April 2024, a few days before voting, the Congress President held a rally in Kalaburagi (Gulbarga), which galvanized Congress workers in the region. Kharge struck a chord with the voters by highlighting the critical developmental works he and his family have done for the area. The Congress' sweep across the five seats of Kalyana Karnataka comes down to the strong leadership of the party President had the extensive time he spent campaigning in the region.

Thirdly, the Karnataka voters have once again made it clear that they vote differently in Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. In the 2023 Assembly Elections, the broader sentiment amongst the electorate was that 'we want Siddaramaiah in the state and Modi in the centre'. Despite the BJP's resounding defeat of the BJP in the Assembly polls, the Prime Minister and the central leadership remained popular. This popularity worked in favour of the BJP in these elections. Despite the success and widespread support for the Congress' five guarantees, voters still preferred the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls. Across Karnataka, the BJP enjoyed a popular vote share of 46.06 percent, which is up from the 36 percent it got in the Assembly Elections. In Uttara Kannada, Bengaluru City and Kittur Karnataka, where the Congress performed exceedingly well in the Assembly elections, the BJP won the Lok Sabha seats with comfortable margins. This suggests that voters clearly distinguished between Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections.

The results have important implications for the Congress, BJP and JDS. While Congress would be overjoyed by its remarkable performance in Kalyana Karnataka, important questions remain about its performance in other regions of the state. The consolidation of the Vokkaliga votes behind the JDS-BJP alliance is a matter of concern. This could have significant implications for the party's fortunes in Mysore Karnataka. For the BJP, the strong showing in Bengaluru, Coastal and Kittur Karnataka is a big positive. However, key challenges remain in the party's state-level leadership. These elections exposed some of the factionalism and infighting amongst the party leadership in the state. Finally, for the JDS, despite winning Mandya and Kolar, the defeat in Hassan is a significant setback. This seat was a Gowda family bastion, held by Deve Gowda until 2019. Alarmingly, the charges against Prajwal Revanna will weaken the party further. Questions remain regarding the future of the JDS. As of now, these elections have given it a short lifeline.