Comment | General Elections 2019: Rajinikanth takes a big political gamble

Viju Cherian

On Sunday, February 17, actor and reluctant politician Rajinikanth announced that he would not be contesting the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. The news has not come as a surprise to many given that the matinee idol is yet to form a proper political party.

In a statement Rajinikanth said that his target was the assembly elections (scheduled for 2021) and that he was not extending support to any political party. However, he asked his fans to vote for anyone who could solve Tamil Nadu’s water crisis and provide a stable government at the Centre.

Rajinikanth announced his entry into active politics on New Year’s Eve on December 31, 2017. Then too, he did not name his party (he still hasn’t) and spell out his politics. To his credit he had then said that he would be focusing on the 2021 assembly polls.

However, by not contesting the upcoming general elections he has given the impression that he is waiting to see how the contesting parties do, and then take a decision.

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Viju Cherian

Opinion Editor|moneycontrol.com

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Be that as it may, Rajinikanth came late to the party. More than two decades ago, in 1996, he had an opportunity to enter politics — but choose not to. Then he was at the height of his stardom and there was a political window with Jayalalithaa on a weak wicket. Today, the political landscape has changed and no longer does the matinee idol enjoy a credulous fan following.

Now, by taking a rain check on contesting this election, the Superstar, as his fans call him, has missed yet another opportunity in politics.

By sitting this one out, Rajinikanth has taken a considerable political risk. When the 2021 assembly elections in Tamil Nadu take place, Rajinikanth will be 70 years old. Unless there are tectonic shifts in Tamil Nadu politics, it’s difficult for Rajinikanth to get a party up and running in such a short while.

The upcoming general elections will also be the first major polls after the demise of DMK chief M Karunanidhi and AIADMK leader Jayalalithaa. It will be the first time in 50 years that Tamil Nadu goes to the polls without a prominent actor-politician in the fray.

Of course, there is Kamal Haasan who has announced that he will be contesting the 39 seats in the state. Like the Superstar, Haasan too plunged into politics following Jayalalithaa’s death in 2017. However, Haasan is yet to show signs of gathering critical momentum of bringing about a change or making a considerable difference to the electoral balance by contesting all the seats in Tamil Nadu.

For Rajinikanth to miss out on such an occasion does not appear to be a politically shrewd one. If the political flux seen now is resolved before 2021, it would be difficult for him to make an entry and leave an impression.

At the moment, given how things stand, Rajinikanth has a long shot in Tamil Nadu politics — if the political uncertainty in Tamil Nadu’s ruling AIADMK continues, if the DMK does not do well in the Lok Sabha polls, if Kamal Haasan’s party manages to break some ground, if the BJP does well in select pockets in the state and if the Superstar manages to capitalise on these opportunities. It’s a long, long shot.

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