Assembly Elections Phase II | Can BJP fight anti-incumbency, retain Uttarakhand?

Representative image

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's appeal with voters may be an overarching factor in the three states (Goa, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand)  going to polls on February 14, but nowhere it is under test than in Uttarakhand, carved out of UP in 2000.

Uttarakhand has battled natural disasters, and witnessed a pace of development that has not matched up to the people's needs and expectations, often causing migration of young men seeking their future in the plains. Given this, Modi remains the best bet to pull the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) chestnut out of fire because of anti-incumbency issues.

In the past one year, Uttarakhand has had three Chief Ministers, finally settling on incumbent Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami, who appears to have managed to reverse the saffron slide. Dhami was chosen by the BJP after Tirath Singh Rawat (who was Chief Minister for five months) and Trivendra Singh Rawat (who was Chief Minister for four years) were removed to tackle dissent as well as due to lack of support and popularity in the state.

Modi has publicly backed Dhami’s leadership since he took over in July, and used his connection with the voters to appeal to them to give a second chance for the BJP. The party also dropped more than a dozen of its sitting legislators to pick fresh faces or defectors who came from the Congress.

Modi's trump card is the visible development in hill shrines such as Kedarnath, which was devastated by the 2013 landslide and floods.

Uttarakhand does not have a sizeable Muslim population, which is about 14 percent and mostly concentrated in Haridwar, Dehradun, Uddham Singh Nagar, and Nainital. Normally, the polarising narrative in the rest of North India should not have found big resonance.

However, this time, along with issues such as cross-border terrorism (which finds a huge mention because of a good number of local families have their menfolk serving in the armed forces), the raging hijab controversy has seen the BJP take a pledge to initiate the process of implementing the Uniform Civil Code in Uttarakhand if voted back to power.

Interestingly, Dhami announced it via a video message just two days ahead of the voting after the Congress pledged to set up a Muslim university in Uttarakhand. He also promised to tighten the law against 'love jihad' (a term pejoratively used to describe when Muslim men marry non-Muslim women and convert them to Islam) by including a provision of 10 years of rigorous imprisonment.

About 18 percent of Uttarakhand’s population are Dalits who are wooed by the Congress as well as a weakened Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

A year ago, the Congress was seen as gaining ground because of the BJP's internal problems. But today, the party seems to be a divided house. Its popular face, former Chief Minister Harish Rawat, was not declared the chief ministerial face by the party high command. Also, Harish Rawat, who was announced as the candidate from Ramnagar in Nainital district, was asked to shift to another seat, Lalkuan, because his rival within the Congress Ranjit Rawat was insistent on contesting from Ramnagar.

A new factor this time could be the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and also rebels from the Congress and the BJP who are contesting as independents. Their importance would grow in the case of any party failing to secure enough number on its own to form a government.

A late entrant, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has sought to woo the voters with his promise of ‘corruption-free’ governance, and a host of freebies. AAP is focusing on 36 seats that have changed hands frequently, targeting mostly the Congress strongholds. Kejriwal has named Colonel Ajay Kothiyal (Retd) as their chief ministerial candidate.

In 2017, the BJP won 56 of the 70 seats, securing 47 percent of the votes. Though the Congress’ vote share was 34 percent, it secured just 11 seats.

The BJP is counting mainly the Garhwal region where the party is eyeing at least 21 out of the 41 seats. The fight in the Kumaon region could be tighter.

UP's second phase of voting: People in 55 assembly seats are to choose their pick in the second phase of voting on February 14. In 2017, the BJP won 38 of these 55 seats, and was runners-up in 12 others. The Samajwadi Party (SP), which had an alliance with the Congress in 2017, won 15 seats and came second in 22 seats. Also, the victory margins in these 15 seats were narrow.

The ‘Muslim vote’ is a big factor for the SP to make a comeback in UP. That's why the BJP and the SP have been accusing each other of trying to polarise voters on religious grounds. Of the nine districts going to polls, six districts have 30 percent of Muslims. The Dalits, who are a decisive factor in 30 seats, have voted for the BSP in recent years. However, the BJP has been wooing them since the last election.

Shekhar Iyer is former senior associate editor of Hindustan Times and political editor of Deccan Herald.

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.