While the undertone remains positive, investors should keep an eye on global developments, as renewed tariff tensions between the US and China could inject short-term volatility into the otherwise festive rally, Sudeep Shah advised.
The zone of 25,050–25,100 will act as a crucial resistance area for the Nifty 50, as it coincides with the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
The support for the Bank Nifty is around 54,800 while next resistance is around 55,800 and 56,500 for the next few sessions, Arun Kumar Mantri said.
Overall, the daily and weekly timeframe trend continue to be in a sideways band Nifty 50. There is no clear direction as far as Nifty is concerned, said Rahul Ghose of Hedged.
Bharti Airtel and Larsen & Toubro would be my picks for next week, said Milan Vaishnav.
On the technical front, Nifty has broken below key short-term moving averages — the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMAs — all of which have now turned downward, signalling weakness in trend structure, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
The June swing high may not sustain, if Nifty fails to have broader participation, said Rahul Ghose.
The Nifty 50 index is comfortably trading above its key short-term and long-term moving averages, both of which are beginning to trend upward — a positive sign for the bulls.
Both stocks trade above their key moving averages and have shown golden crossover before the actual price breakout," he reasoned, Milan Vaishnav said.
Looking ahead, the 200-day EMA zone between 24,300 and 24,250 has become a critical support area for the Nifty 50. A sustained move below 24,250 could intensify selling and potentially push the index toward the 24,000 mark, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
Overall, the technical setup appears weak, but with the monthly August expiry approaching, any positive trigger could spark a strong short-covering rally in the Nifty 50, said Centrum’s Nilesh Jain.
Given technical confirmations, Nifty Auto is well-positioned to continue its outperformance in the short term, barring any major market-wide disruptions, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
Overall, the Nifty 50 remain in the broad trading range with strong under-currents and will eventually move past the crucial resistance zone of 25,000-25,150 in the coming days, says Milan Vaishnav of Gemstone Equity.
Current options data and the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) suggest that the market is likely to remain in a short-term consolidation phase, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
FII futures positioning still shows a heavy concentration of shorts around. Until this data turns more constructive or prices start to form a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows, the Nifty 50 is likely to remain anchored near the lower end of the Bollinger Bands, Rahul Sharma of JM Financial said.
Short term indicators are showing positive divergence suggesting lack of downside momentum but positive price action awaited in the Nifty 50, said Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy Advisors.
Chart formation signals a lack of conviction among bulls and a clear dominance of bears at higher levels, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
Bank Nifty has now moved below several important moving averages, and recent chart patterns look a bit bearish, but the buy on dips should be the outlook for August, said Rahul Ghose.
The 24,400–24,350 zone is expected to act as an immediate support for Nifty. A sustained break below this could further accelerate the downside. On the flip side, the 50-day EMA zone of 24,900–24,950 now stands as a crucial hurdle, and any meaningful recovery would need to clear this zone with conviction, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
Trend wise, with a long to medium-term horizon, the market is in a strong uptrend but with the last three weeks' price action, the short-term trend has slightly tilted downwards, said Sameet Chavan of Angel One.
The 100-day EMA zone of 24,600-24,550 will act as immediate support for the Nifty 50. Any sustainable move below the level of 24,550 will lead to further correction upto the 24,200 level. However, on the upside, the 20-day EMA zone of 25,100-25,150 will be the crucial hurdle for the index, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
Milan Vaishnav expects Bank Nifty to break 56,000 support. The correct range for Nifty Bank for the coming week would be 57,500 on the higher side where it is likely to find resistance and 55,000 where there is immediate pattern support.
While the current FII long-short ratio points to a clearly bearish stance by FIIs, the extremely low long-short ratio also suggests that much of the negativity might already be priced in, leaving room for a potential bounce if any positive trigger emerges, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
Technical signals suggest that downside momentum may be gaining strength in Nifty 50, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
I-Sec’s Dharmesh Shah expects volatility to remain elevated amid progression of earnings season coupled with Tariff related development wherein strong support is placed at 24,900-24,800 levels.