Why Bihar election results spell doom for RJD's Rajya Sabha math

In this election, the RJD contested 143 out of 243 Assembly seats, while its ally, the Congress, fought on 61 seats.

After the Bihar election result delivered a stunning blow, the RJD may also face a challenge in the Rajya Sabha in 2030.

The current number of RJD members in the Rajya Sabha from Bihar is five. However, two of them, Prem Chand Gupta and AD Singh, are set to retire next year in 2026. On the other hand, the BJP has five members, and the JD(U) has four. Meanwhile, the Congress and RLM have one member each in the Upper House.

In the 2025 Bihar election, the RJD contested 143 out of 243 Assembly seats, while its ally, the Congress, fought 61 seats. It won 25 seats. In 2020, of its 75 seats, the RJD won 45 with at least 40% of the vote share.

Their diminished MLA count in the Assembly, will echo in the Rajya Sabha as well.

What may happen in 2030?

The RJD may retain one of its seats if it gets the support of Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM. However, one can never say if the AIMIM would support Tejaswhi Yadav’s party in 2030.

This time, the Hyderabad-based AIMIM managed to retain all the five seats it had won the last time.

Out of five RJD members in Rajya Sabha, Prem Chand Gupta and A D Singh will retire in April 2026. Meanwhile, the third one, Faiyaz Ahmad, will retire in July 2028. The remaining two, Manoj Kumar Jha and Sanjay Yadav, will complete their term in April 2030. On the other hand, three members from BJP, and one each from JDU and RJD, will retire in 2028. These five seats too will go in favour of NDA.

In 2026, elections would be held for five vacancies, including two from JD(U) and another from Rashtriya Lok Morcha. Both of them are NDA allies.

The strength of the new assembly will help NDA gain all five seats from Bihar next year.

A decisive NDA majority in the Bihar Assembly increases the alliance’s ability to elect more Rajya Sabha members from the state in 2026. The NDA can translate its Assembly numbers into Rajya Sabha victories without needing support from Opposition legislators.

Members of the Rajya Sabha are elected indirectly by the elected members of state legislative assemblies using proportional representation by means of the single transferable vote. Each state has a fixed number of Rajya Sabha seats. Bihar currently elects 16 members to the Upper House.