Record voter turnout in Phase-1 Bihar polls: Advantage NDA or Mahagathbandhan?

In the 2020 Assembly elections, women outvoted men in 167 of the 243 constituencies

The first phase of the Assembly elections in Bihar saw the state record its highest ever voter turnout of 64.66% across 121 constituencies, the highest in the state's history and up from 57.29% recorded in the 2020 Assembly elections.

This turnout not only surpassed the previous assembly election record set in 2000 (62.57%) but also eclipsed the highest-ever Lok Sabha polling percentage recorded in the state (64.6% in 1998).

Among the 18 districts that went to the polls in the first phase, Muzaffarpur recorded the highest turnout of 71.41%, followed by Samastipur at 71.22% and Begusarai at 69.58%, as per data available on the EC website at the time of filing this report. In Patna district, the polling percentage was 58.40%, the lowest margin recorded in this phase of polling in the state.

Turnout in Bihar for the state Assembly elections has varied over time. With turnout being less than half the electorate in 1952, it reached a high in 2000. In 2005, it fell sharply to 45.9%, rising in the following years to 57.1% in 2020.

According to the Election Commission data, Between the 2010 and 2015 assembly elections, the number of electors increased by 21.7% in these 121 ACs, and the number of voters increased by 30.5. Between the 2015 and 2020 elections, the number of electors and voters increased at roughly the same pace: 9.2% and 9.5%, respectively.

In the 2020 Assembly elections, women outvoted men in 167 of the 243 constituencies, most of them in northern Bihar. In 2020, women's turnout stood at 58.2, compared to 53.2 per cent for men, according to the Election Commission.

The NDA, of which JD(U) is a key partner, has a track of being popular with women voters . Chief Minister Nitish Kumar over the years cultivated the constituencies of women by giving a 50% reservation to them in panchayats and 35% reservation in government jobs.

His government had initiated several schemes that included distributing free bicycles for school-going girls, Jeevika- a skill and livelihood-based self-help group scheme. All these seemed to have played an important role in influencing the women voters and paved his way to the office.

This time too, the ruling alliance has banked on promises like 100 units of free electricity, increase in livelihood opportunities and a deposit of Rs 10,000 in the accounts of women as part of the Mukyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana to retain power in the state.

Just before the campaign ended, Tejashwi Prasad Yadav also made several major announcements for women. He said his government would transfer a lump sum of Rs 30,000 into the bank accounts of women, if elected to power.

In 2020, 11 assembly seats in Nalanda, Muzaffarpur, Gopalganj, Begusarai, Khagaria, Sheikhpura, Kaimur, Rohtas, and Jamui districts witnessed victory margins of less than 1,000 votes. These seats are also under scrutiny this time. JD(U) won the most assembly seats by a very narrow margin. These include Hilsa, Barbigha, Parbatta, and Bhore. The BJP won Bachhwara and Bakhri by a margin of less than 1,000 votes. The RJD and LJP each won one seat.

In many other states, including Chhattisgarh, record voter turnout in some constituencies repeatedly demonstrated continued support for the BJP. This suggests that increased voter turnout can sometimes consolidate incumbent victories rather than bring about change.

In 2023, Madhya Pradesh saw a 77% voter turnout, a 2.08 percentage point increase from the previous election, and the BJP retained its government. In Gujarat, the 2012 elections saw an 15% increase in the vote share, which ultimately led to the return of the then-Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s government.

Political parties were quick to react to the high voter turnout.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a post on X said, "In the first phase of voting in the Bihar Assembly elections, the NDA has gained a massive lead. Along with this, its wave is visible everywhere in the second phase as well."

Tejashwi Yadav  saluted the people of Bihar for the" bumper voting".  "I can now confidently say you have affirmed the victory of 'Mahagathbandhan," he said.

Meanwhile, Jan Suraaj Party chief Prashant Kishor claimed the highest voter turnout was a sign of the people's yearning for a change. “This is highest ever voter turn out in Bihar since independence. It indicates two things – one is like we said before. More than 60 per cent of Bihar wants change,” Kishor told reporters in Gaya.