Mayawati springs surprise ahead of UP bypolls: 'It's about showing everyone that ...'

Mayawati

In a move that has taken many political observers by surprise, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati announced in a meeting with party workers on Sunday that the BSP will contest upcoming by-elections in Uttar Pradesh. This decision marks a significant shift in the party's strategy, as the BSP has traditionally abstained from contesting by-elections, focusing instead on larger state and national elections.

By-elections will be held on 10 assembly seats, dates of which would be announced soon.

Mayawati's announcement comes at a critical juncture for the BSP, following a series of disappointing electoral performances. The party suffered a severe setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, failing to secure any seats. This loss came on the heels of a similarly poor showing in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, where the BSP managed to win only a single seat out of 403, a stark contrast to its previous dominance in the state.

A political analyst Kamal Jayant, a member of Bharat Samaj, an organisation that works with dalits said the decision to enter the by-election fray is an attempt by Mayawati to reassert her party’s presence in Uttar Pradesh’s rapidly shifting political landscape.

“Over the past few years, the BSP's traditional Dalit vote bank has been increasingly slipping away. A significant portion of this voter base has gravitated towards the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), particularly in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where the BJP made inroads into Dalit-dominated constituencies,” he said.

“The situation has been further complicated by the emergence of the INDIA Alliance, a coalition between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Indian National Congress. This alliance has succeeded in consolidating much of the anti-BJP vote in Uttar Pradesh, including a substantial share of the Dalit electorate that once formed the backbone of the BSP’s support. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the SP-Congress alliance made significant gains at the BSP’s expense, further weakening Mayawati’s hold over her traditional voters,” he said.

Adding to Mayawati's challenges is the rise of Chandrashekhar Azad, the young and charismatic leader of the Bhim Army. Chandrashekhar has emerged as a formidable force in Dalit politics, particularly among the youth. His victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections from the Nagina constituency in Bijnor, a seat with deep personal significance for Mayawati, underscored his growing influence. Bijnor was the constituency from which Mayawati won her first parliamentary election in 1989, making Chandrashekhar’s victory there particularly symbolic and a direct challenge to her leadership.

A strategy to galvanize the cadre

By contesting the upcoming by-elections, Mayawati appears to be taking a calculated risk to reinvigorate the BSP’s grassroots organization. The by-polls offer an opportunity for the party to re-engage with its base and demonstrate its continued relevance in Uttar Pradesh politics. In her meeting with party workers, Mayawati emphasized the importance of these by-elections, urging them to rally behind the party's candidates and work tirelessly to ensure their victory.

“This is not just about winning a few seats,” Mayawati reportedly told the gathering. “It is about showing everyone that the BSP is still a force to be reckoned with, that we can still fight and win elections. We must go back to our roots, to the people who have supported us for decades, and remind them of what the BSP stands for.”

Political analysts suggest that Mayawati's decision is also aimed at countering the narrative that the BSP is a spent force. By actively participating in the by-elections, the BSP can keep its organizational machinery active and maintain visibility in the political arena, rather than being sidelined until the next major election. This strategy could help the BSP rebuild its support base, particularly among Dalit voters who have drifted towards other parties in recent years.

Challenges and future strategy

However, the path ahead is fraught with challenges. The BSP will have to contend not only with the established strength of the SP-Congress alliance but also with the BJP’s deep organizational reach and resources. Moreover, Chandrashekhar’s Bhim Army continues to gain traction, particularly among younger voters who may see him as a more dynamic and contemporary representative of Dalit interests compared to Mayawati.

To overcome these challenges, the BSP may need to rethink its traditional approach. This could involve more direct engagement with voters, leveraging social media and other digital platforms to reach younger audiences, and perhaps even exploring new alliances. Mayawati's leadership will be crucial in navigating these complexities and in formulating a strategy that can restore the party’s electoral fortunes.

The upcoming by-elections will serve as a litmus test for the BSP’s future in Uttar Pradesh. Success could provide a much-needed boost to the party’s morale and offer a platform for a more robust challenge in the 2027 Assembly elections. Failure, however, could further erode the BSP’s influence, relegating it to the fringes of state politics.