How Mayawati is reworking math to counter Akhilesh's Lok Sabha masterstroke

BSP chief Mayawati

The recent Lok Sabha elections have left the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in turmoil, particularly due to the shifting of Dalit and Most Backward Caste (MBCs) votes towards the India Alliance of Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress. In response, party leader Mayawati has initiated a comprehensive strategy to consolidate the BSP's dispersed voter base.

Central to this strategy is the recent appointment of party officers based on caste equations, reflecting the party's focus on future plans. The BSP's reaction to the election results indicates significant changes within the party structure. The change is already felt in the party as over 60 percent of responsibilities in certain district units are now assigned to Dalits and MBCs.

“If this strategy is implemented across the organizational level, it could yield far-reaching results,” said political analyst Dilip Kumar Jayant, author of 'Mayawati aur Dalit Politics'.

Some experts draw parallels between the BSP’s recent organizational changes and the Samajwadi Party’s historic victory using the PDA (Pichda, Dalit, and Alpasankhyak) formula.

“Akhilesh won because he was able to unite Dalits and backwards. What Mayawati is doing is just an extension of PDA,” Jayant added.

This marks a shift from Mayawati's earlier politics, which primarily revolved around Muslims and Dalits with an additional focus on the upper caste.

Arithmetically, MBCs and Dalits represent a larger voter segment than Muslims and Dalits in Uttar Pradesh. Dalits constitute over 21% of the state’s population, and Muslims another 19%. The OBCs make up around 41%, with 75 sub-castes forming the MBCs. Among the Backward castes, Yadavs and Kurmis are the most dominant, while the MBCs, or non-Yadav OBCs, constitute around 34% of the population.

Historically, since its formation in 1984, the BSP nurtured and developed a team of backward leaders such as Swami Prasad Maurya, Dara Singh Chauhan, Dayaram Pal, OP Rajbhar, and Sukhdev Rajbhar, who later deserted the BSP to join other political parties.

“The BSP's recent appointments and the emphasis on caste equations at the organizational level are part of a broader strategy to strengthen the party's internal structure. By giving significant responsibilities to Dalits and backward classes, the BSP aims to ensure that these key voter segments feel represented and valued within the party. This, in turn, is expected to translate into stronger electoral support,” said Nomita P. Kumar of the Giri Institute of Development Studies.

Furthermore, Mayawati was the first leader to react to the Supreme Court's order regarding the creation of sub-quotas within the Scheduled Caste quota. She threatened to launch an agitation if the verdict was implemented, thereby adding a new dimension to Dalit politics.

Experts also note that political dynamics in Western Uttar Pradesh, influenced by Chandrashekhar, the MP from Nagina, pose a further challenge for the BSP. The party has gradually lost its vote share, impacted first by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and more recently by the SP and Congress. Now, Chandrashekhar could further erode Mayawati's vote bank, necessitating a strategic overhaul to bolster the BSP's core vote and political support base.

“By prioritizing Dalits and MBCs in organizational appointments, the party aims to re-establish its traditional support base. The BSP's new strategy involves leveraging the influence of established leaders while adapting to the changing political landscape,” Jayant said. “This approach is seen as crucial for addressing the needs and concerns of its core constituents, ensuring the BSP remains relevant and competitive in future elections.”