J&K's 'Game of Thrones': Are NC, PDP, BJP, Congress battle-ready?

It was in 2014 when the last assembly elections were held in J&K (File)

After nearly a decade, the mainstream parties of Jammu & Kashmir are shaking off the political rust and gearing up for the upcoming three-phase elections in the Union Territory.

J&K will now be the third Union Territory after Delhi and Puducherry to have an elected assembly. In J&K's case, the statehood is likely to follow soon after the election results.

The strength of the J&K assembly has increased to 90 from 83 since the 2014 election after delimitation. Jammu now has 43 seats (up from 37) while Kashmir has 47 seats (up from 46). Ladakh, which had 4 seats, is now a separate Union Territory.

J&K assembly elections: Full schedule

The recent Lok Sabha elections for 5 seats in J&K were a pre-cursor to the much larger battle at hand, which will define a new era of politics in the Valley post the abrogation of Article 370.

For a region rousing from a nearly 10-year electoral inertia, the pressing question is whether the political parties are ready for the upcoming electoral battle. Here's a look:

PDP

The Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP, which won 28 seats in the last elections and formed a government with BJP, is now facing an uphill battle for survival.

The party has been in dire straits since the fall of its government in 2018 after the BJP withdrew support to Mufti.

In the recent Lok Sabha polls, PDP chief Mufti faced an electoral setback from her stronghold of Anantnag-Rajouri after losing the seat to NC's Mian Altaf Ahmed Larvi. It now has zero representation in the lower house.

Moreover, for the last few years, PDP has been a part of the broader Gupkar alliance with NC. If it goes solo in J&K, it faces the challenge of rebuilding its separate identity and decoupling itself from its former rival NC. Both the parties contested the Lok Sabha polls separately but NC fared way better than PDP.

NC

National Conference (NC) chief Farooq Abdullah has decided to lead the party in the upcoming assembly elections in what could be perceived as an effort to offset the "elite" and "outsider" labels associated with his son Omar.

Omar Abdullah, who is the former Jammu & Kashmir chief minister, was defeated from Baramulla in the recent Lok Sabha elections by UAPA-accused Engineer Rashid. The upset was humbling reality check for the party scion, especially when the NC managed to win the other two seats it contested.

Under Farooq, the party is hoping to regain its strongholds from PDP in case it decides to put up a solo fight. In 2014, PDP dominated in both north and south Kashmir. It won 12 seats in the north and 13 in the south. The NC won 8 seats in the north but bagged just 2 in the south, a region considered its stronghold.

In 2024, it will be hoping to reverse these losses as it takes on a lacklustre PDP. That is, of course, if the two parties decide to contest separately.

BJP

Elections in J&K present a significant opportunity for BJP, which aims to capitalise on the Modi government's decision to abrogate Article 370.

By focusing on the economic progress made in the Union Territory since the move, the party has successfully shifted the narrative surrounding the once-controversial special status and turned it into a rallying point.

The increase in seats in Jammu will also put BJP in an advantageous position since the party is strong in the region.

In 2014, BJP won all its 25 seats from Jammu. On the flip side of this is the party's lack of presence in Kashmir.

The party is expected to rely on its "proxies" - Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party, Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference (PC) and Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) – to win some seats in the Valley.

Congress

It's been nearly 16 years since Congress has been part of a government in Jammu & Kashmir and the grand old party is looking to change that reality.

Congress has been urging parties like NC and PDP to contest unitedly to keep BJP away from power. It is also open to forming alliances with "like-minded" parties, hoping to carry the momentum of the INDIA bloc from the Lok Sabha elections into the Jammu & Kashmir assembly polls.

The main objective of the Congress would be to inflict losses on the BJP in the Jammu region where the two parties are the main contestants. In the Valley, it may fancy its chances in a few seats in south Kashmir.

It is also relieved that Ghulam Nabi Azad's party has so far not made much of a mark in the UT yet.

But unlike NC and PDP, the Congress does not have a strong local face in the Union Territory after Ghulam Nabi Azad's exit.